Federal Reserve Meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is assembling today and Wednesday for its fourth scheduled meeting of 2025. Market expectations indicate that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as the central bank has maintained elevated interest rates throughout the year in an effort to bring inflation under control. Officials have been cautious about easing monetary policy, citing concerns that tariffs imposed by President Trump could place upward pressure on consumer prices. Although the Federal Reserve operates independently from the executive branch, its decision is likely to face renewed criticism from the administration, which has repeatedly called for a substantial rate cut of a full percentage point. In recent weeks, Fed officials have emphasized their reluctance to lower interest rates from current levels, warning that doing so prematurely could risk reigniting inflation. While inflation has moderated and is nearing the Fed’s 2% annual target, policymakers remain wary that trade-related price pressures could reverse that progress. The FOMC will release its policy decisions at 1:00pm CST on June 18, followed by a press conference with the Fed chairman at 1:30pm CST.
Weekly U.S. Economic Report Schedule: Today: Retail Sales 7:30am CST, API Energy Stocks 3:30pm CST; Wednesday: EIA Energy Stocks 9:30am CST, Jobless Claims 7:30am CST, Federal Reserve meeting June 17-18; Thursday: Juneteenth, no reports, (the NYMEX will not be trading on Juneteenth, it is a federal holiday in the U.S., and the stock market and bond markets are also closed); Friday: Export Sales 7:30am CST
India – Record High Imports of Russian Crude Oil: India's crude oil imports from Russia surged to over 2.2 million barrels per day in the first two weeks of June, accounting for approximately 46% of the country's total crude oil needs. This marks a significant increase from the previous year and emphasizes India's growing reliance on discounted Russian crude amid global supply constraints and OPEC+ production cuts. Despite the growing share of Russian crude in India's import mix, refiners are also exploring alternative sources to mitigate potential risks. The European Union's recent sanctions package, which includes a ban on importing refined products made with Russian crude oil and efforts to lower the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, may impact future Russian oil flows.
Market Overview: Crude oil futures are rallying higher this morning, as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are raising concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies and key trade routes. The market reacted to developments following intensified Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, including reported hits on state media infrastructure. In response, President Trump on Monday urged the evacuation of Iran’s capital, further fueling uncertainty and market volatility. Analysts' focus will also gravitate to the APR and EIA energy stock reports, early API estimates are for a draw of 580,000 barrels on crude, a draw of 133,000 barrels on distillates, and a build of 223,000 barrels of gasoline. Refinery utilizations is expected to fall -0.2%.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude briefly fell to a low of $69.38 yesterday following reports that Iran is seeking a truce with Israel. However, prices rebounded as the market digested the news, with WTI spending much of the session trading near the $72.00 level. This morning prices are again on the rise from increased Iran-Israel conflict, although major oil and gas infrastructure and flows have so far been spared from any substantial impact. The market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, and current price action suggests a "buy-the-dip" sentiment among traders. Key technical levels to watch include initial support at the 62% Fibonacci retracement level of $70.94, followed by the 50% retracement of $67.92. On the upside, resistance is seen at $77.62, with a secondary level at $78.00. Continued geopolitical headlines are expected to drive near-term volatility.
Oil prices rallied late in today’s trading session as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, with no clear resolution in sight. The market also responded to news of a collision between two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, an area that has seen increased electronic interference amid the ongoing conflict. While both vessels caught fire, no injuries were reported and no petroleum spillage occurred. Crude oil prices surged more than 4%, settling at $74.84 per barrel. Heating oil posted a strong gain as well, rising 4.8% (+$0.1118) to close at $2.5051 per gallon. RBOB gasoline futures advanced more modestly, increasing $0.0520 to settle at $2.2719.
API Stats
Industry Stats
Estimates
(million barrels)
(Reuters Poll)
CL: -10.100
Dist: +0.318
Mogas: -0.202
CL: -1.794
Dist: +0.440
Mogas: +0.627