Russian Fuel Exports: Russia’s fuel exports have hit 3 month lows due to impeded refining, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Reports show oil exports dropped to 2.3 million barrels per day last month during constrained refinery rates as Ukrainian drone attacks on key oil facilities caused disruptions. These attacks have targeted critical oil facilities, disrupting operations and causing delays in refinery processing. This situation highlights the ongoing strain on Russia’s energy infrastructure due to the conflict, which not only affects exports but also complicates efforts to maintain consistent production levels. If this trend continues, it could potentially affect global oil markets, as lower supply from Russia might lead to price fluctuations or a shift in trading patterns, especially if other countries or energy sources try to fill the gap left by Russian exports.

Weekly U.S. Economic Report Schedule: Today: API Energy Stocks 3:30 pm CST; Wednesday: EIA Energy Stocks 9:30 am CST; Thursday: Export Sales, Jobless Claims 7:30 am CST, **EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Report 11:00am CST. **Please note: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday it is delaying publication of the "Short-Term Energy Outlook" (STEO) report, due to the recent plunge in oil prices to near four-year lows. The report, originally scheduled for Tuesday, April 8th, will now be published on Thursday, April 10, at 11:00am CST. The monthly STEO report details the EIA's forecasts for U.S. and global oil supply and demand, with commentary from analysts on recent developments or anticipated changes factoring into its projections.

2025 U.S. Hurricane Forecast: According to forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU), Atlantic Ocean water temperatures remain warmer than normal, which is expected to contribute to above-normal activity during the upcoming hurricane season which runs from June 1st to November 30th. The CSU team expects 17 named storms during the season, with nine of those possibly developing into hurricanes, four of which are forecast to develop into major hurricanes. The CSU forecast is very similar to a hurricane season outlook report released last month by AccuWeather, which called for 13 to 18 named storms in the upcoming season, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major hurricane strength. CSU’s forecast aligning with AccuWeather's hurricane season outlook suggests that both sources are anticipating a similar level of hurricane activity for the upcoming season. Typically, these forecasts offer predictions on the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) based on various meteorological factors such as sea surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and historical patterns. Last year, there were 18 named storms, five major hurricanes and six storms that made U.S. landfall.

Market Overview: Oil prices are showing a slight increase in this morning's trading, recouping a portion of recent losses as traders express continued concerns over weakening demand amid the intensifying U.S. led trade conflict. Analysts from ING have indicated that the risks are still skewed to the downside as President Trump threatens an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if it doesn’t lift its 34% retaliatory tariff. Looking at this weeks stock oil and refined product stock reports, a preliminary Reuters poll suggests that U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories were expected to have risen last week by about 1.6 million barrels, indicating market expectations of weak demand.  

Heating Oil Chart – Daily

Heating oil started the day lower, with a mid-morning push by the bulls to bring trading higher into the black, that only lasted for a short time before falling back into red territory. From a technical standpoint, Heating Oil has been displaying overbought signals especially on the longer-term charts. That opens the door for continued short-term selling pressure, keeping the near-term trend on the bearish side. Crude and refined product prices continued to decline on worries of recession and slowing global demand amid trade wars between the U.S. and most other nations. Crude is at multi-year lows as buyers back off crude and other energy products. The last time Heating Oil futures traded this close to $2.00 was back on 12/31/2021 when the low hit $2.0069. As you can see from the chart, the low yesterday was $2.0075, however this morning we’re seeing a rebound higher by just shy of 1%. 

President Trump announced that if China does not remove its 34% import tariff on U.S. goods, the White House will impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, effective immediately starting tomorrow, April 9th. This would bring China’s total tariff rate on U.S. goods to 104%. WTI settled below $60.00 today, which hasn't happened since March of 2021. The decline in oil prices reflects skepticism regarding a near-term de-escalation, with investors expressing caution about the potential impact of the trade war on global economic growth and energy demand. Additional continued pressure was put forth by OPEC+’s planned increase in oil production for May, along with Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce oil prices to Asia.