OPEC+: OPEC and its allies face a difficult decision about whether to loosen oil production caps, despite the weak outlook for crude supply and demand in the near future. The alliance, known as OPEC+, is scheduled to start unwinding years of deep production cuts in April. The group is currently withholding 5.85 million barrels per day, or about 5.7% of global demand, to stabilize the market. However, the planned rollback of 2.2 million bpd, set for the first quarter of 2024, has been delayed five times due to ongoing weak demand and rising global oil output. The market is unlikely to improve significantly by April, and conditions may worsen. Trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and other major economies, are further impacting oil demand growth. Speculation about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and the easing of U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil production has also added complexity to OPEC's decision.

Iraq: Iraqis waiting for Turkey's approval to restart oil flows from the Kurdish region, with exports expected to resume in two days. The Iraqi oil minister confirmed that Kurdish oil exports will comply with OPEC+ decisions and will be managed by Iraq's oil ministry. Kurdish authorities have agreed to restart exports based on available volumes, following a halt by Turkey in March 2023 due to a dispute over unauthorized exports. The U.S. administration is pressuring Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to restart, potentially to offset a fall in Iranian oil exports. The Iraqi oil minister clarified that oil from the Kirkuk fields will be used locally, not exported through Turkey’s Ceyhan port.

BP: BP's CEO has decided to abandon the company's target of increasing renewable generation by 20 times by 2030, shifting the focus back to fossil fuels to address investor concerns about earnings. BP's stock has underperformed compared to rivals, leading to a strategy change that also involves dropping the target to reduce oil and gas output by 2030. During a capital markets day, CEO Murray Auchincloss will announce the decision to abandon the 50-gigawatt renewable capacity goal, which has not been reported before. The company will also set anew annual growth target instead of aiming for a $49 billion EBITDA this year and plans to divest assets and cut low-carbon investments to reduce debt. BP has yet to formally announce the changes but is expected to make public the revised strategy soon.

Market Overview: Oil prices remained steady on Monday as investors awaited clarity on talks to end the war in Ukraine and the potential resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 0.2% to $70.26, following a decline of more than $2 on Friday. The European Union is set to meet on March 6 to discuss further support for Ukraine, while U.S. President Donald Trump has initiated talks with Russia, excluding Ukraine and the EU. Despite sanctions disrupting Russian oil exports, the end of the war may not necessarily increase Russian oil supplies, as Russia is part of the OPEC+ production cuts. Analysts suggest that geopolitical developments and U.S. policy could impact oil prices in the near term.

OPEC+ has effectively maintained oil market stability in recent years through disciplined production cuts. However, by limiting production, OPEC's market share has decreased as non-member producers, such as U.S. drillers in the Permian shale, have increased output, making the U.S. the world’s top oil producer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2025 U.S. oil production forecast to a record 13.6 million bpd, with steady output expected despite slower growth. Global oil production is projected to grow by 1.6 million bpd in 2025, driven by countries outside OPEC+, including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Meanwhile, internal tensions within OPEC+ are rising, with Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field expansion and Nigeria and Iraq both increasing production. The UAE, a close ally of Saudi Arabia, is also ramping up its oil capacity, having already reached almost 5 million bpd in capacity and increasing its quota by 300,000 bpd this year.

Oil prices edged higher Monday afternoon as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and Iraq’s commitment to OPEC+ production limits reinforced concerns about near-term supply tightness. WTI crude finished up 30 cents at $70.70 per barrel, recovering from its lowest settlement of the year. The U.S. Treasury’s new sanctions on Iran’s oil industry targeted brokers and shippers, though analysts remain uncertain about their impact on exports. Meanwhile, Iraq pledged to compensate for recent overproduction, adding further support to prices. However, ongoing Ukraine war developments and potential talks to end the conflict could influence future price movements.