OPEC+: OPEC+ is debating whether to raise oil output in April as planned or freeze it due to uncertainty from new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The group typically confirms its supply policy a month in advance, with a final decision expected between March 5-7, but no consensus has emerged yet. The UAE and Russia are in favor of increasing output, while Saudi Arabia and others support a delay. Oil prices have fluctuated due to factors like new sanctions on Russia and Iran, alongside hopes of a peace deal in Ukraine. The complexity of the situation has led analysts to suggest that OPEC+ might extend its output cuts further, possibly delaying any production increase until the second half of 2025.

Russian and Iranian Oil: China's imports of Russian Far East crude and Iranian oil are expected to rise in March, as non-sanctioned tankers replace those under U.S. embargo, driven by high freight rates and lucrative payoffs. This rebound is easing global oil supply concerns, which had previously boosted prices. U.S. sanctions on ships and entities dealing with Iranian and Russian oil, imposed since October, disrupted trade with China and India. Following a surge in freight rates due to sanctions, at least 17 non-sanctioned tankers joined the Russia-China trade route between January and February. As a result, Russian oil deliveries to China are set to increase, returning to the 2024 average of 920,000 barrels per day, up from January's 860,000 bpd.

Iraq: Eight international oil firms in Iraq's Kurdistan region announced they would not resume oil exports through Turkey's Ceyhan, despite Baghdad's claims that the restart was imminent. The U.S. has been pushing for Kurdish oil exports to Turkey to help reduce Iranian oil exports amid its "maximum pressure" campaign. Baghdad, while aligned with both Washington and Tehran, is cautious about becoming entangled in U.S. policies against Iran. The Iraqi government stated it would soon resume exports, starting with 185,000 barrels per day, but no formal agreements were made with the Kurdish producers. The halt in exports since March 2023 followed a ruling requiring Turkey to pay Baghdad $1.5 billion for unauthorized exports, complicating the resumption of shipments.

Market Overview: Oil prices fell over 1% on Friday, heading for their first monthly drop since November, due to concerns over U.S. tariff threats and Iraq's decision to resume oil exports from Kurdistan. Uncertainty about OPEC's production plans for April and ongoing peace talks in Ukraine further weighed on market sentiment. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.36 a barrel, set to post it's first monthly decline in three months. Iraq's decision to resume exports raises questions about compliance with OPEC+ obligations, especially if the group delays its planned production cuts. Meanwhile, the looming tariff war and concerns over global demand have added to market volatility, with traders reducing risk exposure.

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In 2020, BP's energy transition strategy received strong investor support as the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the shifting global landscape and caused a significant drop in energy prices due to lockdowns. The rise of the environmental agenda brought increased interest in ESG funds and net-zero commitments from businesses, banks, and financial institutions. Western governments launched ambitious decarbonization plans, with a focus on supporting renewable energy sources. However, by 2022, the world faced high inflation and energy price volatility, worsened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted oil and gas supplies and led to record profits for fossil fuel producers. BP and other Big Oil companies targeted offshore wind and hydrogen projects, seeing them as potential growth areas. They leveraged their offshore experience to gain a competitive advantage in wind energy, pouring investments into projects in several countries. However, many of these projects became financially unviable due to technical challenges, inflation, supply chain delays, and political opposition, while the potential of hydrogen faded as high production and transportation costs dampened its appeal.