Venezuela: The U.S. is preparing to grant limited authorizations to Chevron and potentially other partners of Venezuela’s PDVSA (state owned energy company), allowing them to resume some operations and oil swaps in the sanctioned country. This marks a shift from the Trump administration’s earlier hardline stance, which had canceled energy licenses and imposed secondary sanctions. While the U.S. insists that no profits should reach President Maduro’s government, experts question how this can be avoided, as PDVSA typically requires taxes and royalties before approving exports. The move follows a recent prisoner swap and ongoing negotiations, with Chevron already preparing to re-engage in Venezuela. Other European companies like Eni and Repsol are also seeking similar permissions. Despite past efforts to block Maduro’s access to oil revenues, previous licenses have indirectly benefited his administration through cost-saving oil swap arrangements.

Russian Sanctions: President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil unless Russia agrees to a peace deal with Ukraine, but analysts doubt he will follow through due to the risk of inflation and global economic disruption. A similar threat made in March against buyers of Venezuelan oil has not been enforced, and Venezuela’s exports have increased, especially to China. Experts argue that such tariffs are too blunt and could cause oil prices to spike, which Trump is keen to avoid, particularly ahead of the midterm elections. His preference for bilateral deals and political messaging over strict enforcement adds to skepticism about the threat’s effectiveness. While the Treasury Department claims readiness to act, past sanctions have had limited impact, and Congress is unlikely to push aggressive measures without Trump’s approval. Overall, the tariff threats appear more symbolic than practical, aimed at political leverage rather than immediate policy change.

China: PetroChina has approved a multi-billion-dollar investment to build a new refinery and petrochemical complex in Dalian, northeast China, following the closure of an older facility nearby. The new site will include a 200,000-barrel-per-day crude oil refinery and a 1.4 million metric ton-per-year ethylene complex, along with downstream units for products like polyethylene and polypropylene. The project, estimated to cost 68.5 billion yuan (about $9.56 billion), will be located on Changxing Island, where some infrastructure work has already begun. The move comes as PetroChina phases out its older 410,000-bpd refinery amid industry overcapacity and declining fuel demand due to economic slowdown and the rise of electric vehicles.

Market Overview: The energy complex is slightly on the rise to start this Friday morning, supported by optimism around global trade talks that improved the outlook for economic growth and oil demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose slightly to $66.21, though it was on track for a weekly loss of about 1.7%. Prices have remained range-bound recently due to mixed signals and a lack of clear market drivers. Trade agreements between the U.S. and partners like Japan and the EU helped lift market sentiment, countering concerns about increased oil supply from Venezuela. The U.S. may allow Chevron and other companies to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially boosting exports by over 200,000 barrels per day. Temporary disruptions in oil exports from the Black Sea and Turkey also supported prices, though that support may fade as shipments return to normal.

The RBOB gasoline futures chart shows prices consolidating near key technical levels, with the 40-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages closely aligned around the $2.08–$2.13 per gallon range. After notable peaks in April and June, prices have pulled back and are now trading sideways, suggesting market indecision. The 40-day moving average is slightly above the longer-term averages, indicating mild short-term strength. However, the convergence of all three moving averages points to a lack of strong directional momentum. This setup often precedes a breakout or breakdown, depending on future demand signals or supply disruptions.

Oil prices fell on Friday, with WTI settling at $65.16, its lowest level since June 30, as economic concerns in the U.S. and China weighed on demand sentiment. Despite weak manufacturing and capital goods data in the U.S. and declining fiscal revenues in China, hopes for a potential U.S.-EU trade deal provided some support. For the week, WTI dropped about 3% as bearish momentum continued amid signs of growing global supply. News that the U.S. may ease sanctions on Venezuela and potentially allow Chevron to resume limited operations raised expectations for additional heavy crude entering the market. Meanwhile, OPEC+ discussions hint at possible production increases to regain market share during peak summer demand. On the diesel front, the market remains under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds, though near-term demand remains seasonally supportive.