Ukraine/Russia War: Russian President Putin said that he agreed with the proposal for a ceasefire, developed between Ukraine and the United States, but said that there were clarifications that needed to be made as he appeared to rule out a quick ending to the fighting. A license allowing Russia to create energy transactions expires this week, potentially putting pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table. 

CERA Week -AI: Artificial intelligence took over the conversation at the world's largest energy gathering. AI has helped energy producers find products more reliably and predictably, reducing input costs and increasing efficiency in production. Additionally, the technology is used to survey existing sites for safety measures - again improving efficiency and reducing costs for producers.  

Vietnamese Trade: The Vietnamese offered solutions to charm the Trump administration - attempting to avoid tariffs. Approximately 1/3 of the Vietnamese GDP is supported by imports to the United States. The country has purchased services for gas-fired power plants and supports the desire to import U.S. energy. 

Market Overview: Energies are somewhat supported this morning after a larger move lower in the session yesterday. Uncertainty regarding the conflict in Europe between Russia and Ukraine has had an impact on trading in the last session. Unstable economic indications caused by trade policies implemented by the United States has had a destructive effect on energy prices. The most recent IEA demand forecast expects supply to outpace demand by 600k bpd of crude. 

Fuel Inventory Projection

Inventory levels are expected to soften through 2025 and 2026 according to EIA. If proven true, inventories would fall to their lowest levels since the year 2000. EIA references refinery closures impacting finished product production, while consumption of finished products is expected to increase. EIA also suggests that wholesale refinery margins would increase during this period, as more consumers compete for less available production. 

Consumer sentiment plunged to levels not seen in over 2 years, while inflation expectations soared according to data released today. Concerns about the economy reference the trade war that commenced in recent weeks and expectations that prices will be boosted because of these actions. Oil and other petroleum futures ended the day stable as markets weigh the different factors impacting the market. Prospects that a peace deal in Ukraine can be made seem to be eroding after Moscow cited the need for  revisions to the proposed ceasefire deal. U.S. oil and gas rig count remains unchanged this week according to Baker Hughes. The data point is a leading indicator of future production -suggesting stagnating domestic production.