Russia-Ukraine: ​Russia has agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal for Russia and Ukraine to temporarily halt attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. This move could eventually pave the way for Russian oil to re-enter global markets. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin consented to stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities, though he stopped short of endorsing the full 30-day ceasefire that Trump had hoped for. Even if an agreement is reached, it may take some time before Russian energy exports see a significant increase. Russia, one of the world’s top oil suppliers, has seen a decline in production since the war began, which led to sanctions on its energy sector.

Energy Meeting: U.S. President Donald Trump will host top oil executives at the White House on Wednesday to discuss strategies for boosting domestic energy production amidst falling crude prices and ongoing trade conflicts. This will be Trump’s first meeting with oil and gas leaders since his second term began in January, and it will include members of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) executive committee, such as the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum. The gathering is expected to serve as a "victory lap" for Trump’s early support of the industry, but oil executives are likely to raise concerns about the trade wars and stress the importance of higher oil prices to meet Trump’s goal of increasing domestic production. Despite his focus on ramping up U.S. production, energy experts argue that maintaining higher oil prices, rather than focusing on increased drilling, is crucial for energy independence. As the trade war continues, API has pushed for reforms, such as permit streamlining and offshore oil leasing, to support both the industry and national security.

Fed Reserve: Traders are awaiting the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which will conclude later today. Interest rate cuts generally stimulate economic activity and increase energy demand. However, the Fed is anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50%. This decision comes amid concerns among investors about a potential economic slowdown due to tariffs imposed by Trump.

Market Overview: Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as Russia agreed to temporarily halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, potentially easing tensions and paving the way for increased Russian oil exports. Despite this, concerns over global economic slowdown from U.S. tariffs and uncertainty surrounding a potential ceasefire deal kept market sentiment weak. Analysts noted that even if sanctions ease, any significant increase in Russian oil supply would take time, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a mixed U.S. crude inventory report which is coming out later today may add to some trading activity. 

Slowdown in Marine Fuel. 

Marine fuel sales at major global refueling ports, including Singapore and Fujairah, have declined in early 2025, driven by uncertainty in the shipping sector due to geopolitical tensions and escalating trade tariffs. In the first two months of 2025, fuel sales at these ports dropped by 9% compared to last year, with Singapore's sales reaching a 20-month low. The slowdown in demand is attributed to weaker global economic activity and lower freight rates, as shipping companies adjust operations to navigate volatile trade conditions. Additionally, fuel demand in regions like Europe and Northeast Asia has also slowed, with concerns about upcoming emission regulations contributing to cautious purchasing behavior.

Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a draw in fuel inventories. U.S. crude stocks increased by 1.7 million barrels, exceeding expectations, while distillate inventories dropped by 2.8 million barrels, surpassing forecasts. Geopolitical concerns also influenced the market, with the Israeli military resuming operations in Gaza and President Trump continuing U.S. actions in Yemen. This is also followed by having the ceasefire made by Russia and Ukraine fall in question after each other is accusing each party of violating the new agreement to refrain from attacks on energy targets hours after it was agreed upon. These developments have led traders to focus on Middle Eastern risks. The Fed held interest rates steady, but signaled a potential reduction by the end of the year.