Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan's oil output has reached a record high this month on the back of oilfield expansion, further exceeding OPEC+ production quotas. The country has repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ quotas in recent months and has promised to reduce output under pressure from OPEC+ leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia. However, it is finding it difficult to convince U.S. oil majors such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil to reduce output from Kazakhstan’s biggest fields after the companies spent tens of billions of dollars on expanding their projects.
Iran Related Sanctions: The United States Treasury on Thursday announced new Iran-related sanctions, which for the first time targeted an independent Chinese refiner among other entities and vessels involved in supplying Iranian crude oil to China. New U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil exports triggered Thursday's rally in oil prices. Thursday's announcement marked Washington's fourth round of sanctions against Iran since U.S. President Donald Trump in February promised "maximum pressure" on Tehran and pledged to drive the country's oil exports to zero.
Alaska Acres: U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced actions to increase oil and gas leasing in Alaska by reopening large portions of the National Petroleum Reserve and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), inline with President Trump’s directive to remove barriers to energy development. This includes revoking restrictions on lands along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline Corridor and Dalton Highway to facilitate projects like the Ambler Road and Alaska LNG Pipeline. While Alaska's leaders, including Governor Mike Dunleavy, support these measures for economic growth, environmental groups and some local communities argue that expanding drilling threatens ecosystems and wildlife. Despite these tensions, the energy industry remains cautious due to the region’s high risks and potential policy reversals.
Market Overview: Energy is down as we begin the day, with the main point being overproduction of supply from OPEC+. OPEC+ yesterday issued a new schedule for seven member nations including Russia, Kazakstan and Iraq to make further oil output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed levels. The market is trying to digest the actions. The market is still on track for its second consecutive weekly gain. This is driven by Sanctions on Iran, Geopolitical tensions with Ukraine and Russia along with the Gaza and U.S. attacks. These show signs to create a tighter supply outlook, but with the looming trade policy uncertainties has traders and end users trying to navigate this complex landscape we call a market.
Alaska Crude.
In the March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. crude oil production in Alaska is forecasted to increase by 16,000 barrels per day in 2026, driven by the Nuna and Pikka projects. These developments mark a significant turnaround for Alaska’s oil industry, with production expected to reach 438,000 b/d, the first annual increase since 2017. The Nuna project, already producing since December 2024, and the Pikka project, with plans for peak production of 80,000 b/d, a reset to reverse the long-term decline in Alaskan oil output. This resurgence in production will primarily support refineries in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and California.
Oil prices remained steady on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by new U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+'s latest output plan. The U.S. Treasury's sanctions targeted Chinese refiners involved in Iranian oil trade, signaling increased pressure on China, which is a major buyer of Iranian crude. These sanctions are expected to reduce Iranian oil exports by 1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ also announced further output cuts, with plans to reduce production by up to 435,000 barrels per day until 2026. However, the market is seeking proof of compliance from key producers, including Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia, to ensure continued support for higher prices.
