OPEC+: OPEC's oil output increased by 170,000 barrels per day in February 2025, reaching 26.74 million barrels per day, with Iran and Nigeria contributing the largest gains. Iran's production rose by 80,000 barrels per day to 3.30 million barrels per day, matching its highest output since 2018, despite U.S. sanctions. Nigeria also exceeded its OPEC+ target by 70,000 barrels per day, benefiting from increased exports and domestic refinery usage. OPEC+ is maintaining production cuts through March due to limited demand expectations but plans to raise output in April. Output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq slightly shifted, with both countries pumping less or more than their OPEC+ targets, while the UAE remained near its quota.

EIA Energy Stocks: Refiners had increased their production last week with Refinery Utilization at 85.9% and a immense build in crude oil as the EIA has reported that crude inventories rose 3.6 million barrels this last week to 433.8 million barrels, however gasoline stocks are down 1.4 million barrels, and distillates stocks are down 1.3 million barrels. U.S. crude oil exports are currently around 7 million barrels per day versus the week before exports were at 5.4 million barrels per day. The EIA reported that inventories have seen a decline which can be related to the result in U.S. refinery maintenance and U.S. exports.

Federal Reserve: The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in an attempt to regulate inflation which is impacting oil prices, as higher borrowing costs dampen economic activity. If interest rates continue to rise, the cost of capital for businesses increases, leading to slower growth, which in turn affects the demand for crude oil. Higher rates can also strengthen the U.S. dollar, making crude oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thus reducing global demand. This has added downward pressure on crude oil prices, with market participants adjusting their expectations for future demand. Although short term volatility remains, the expectation is that tighter monetary policy could contribute to a more cautious outlook for oil prices. Recent economic indicators, including unexpected growth in the services sector and rising inflation due to new tariffs, suggest that the Fed may hold rates steady for the time being while monitoring these developments.

Market Overview: The energy sector is starting out slow this morning with continued talks on tariffs and uncertainties in the U.S. markets. The oil market has been volatile as of late, with crude oil prices fluctuating possibly due to a mix of supply and demand factors. OPEC+’s production news could help stabilize prices, however rising U.S. crude inventories and recent Federal Reserve rates are weighing on the market. Gasoline prices are equally impacted by weaker demand, with geopolitical worries in the Middle East, and potential supply disruptions which could alter the markets positions at any given moment. Energy futures today are starting out with crude up $0.19 to $66.50, HO is up to $2.2468, and RBOB is down to $2.1252.

In recent years, the United States has effectively used its financial and technological dominance as tools of economic warfare, targeting adversaries like Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China. European countries have often supported these U.S. sanctions, but tensions are rising as President Donald Trump returns to power, promising tariffs on the European Union and questioning U.S. support for NATO. During his first term, President Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran, forcing European companies into difficult positions, and U.S. regulators fined European banks for violating sanctions. These actions highlight the vulnerabilities of the interconnected global economy, where economic interdependence can lead to conflict, as noted by Edward Fishman. The EU has pledged to become more self sufficient in defense, but it remains highly dependent on U.S. influence, especially in areas like energy, technology, and finance.