Posted on:
May 2, 2025

Iran: President Donald Trump stated that any country or individual purchasing oil or petrochemicals from Iran will face U.S. secondary sanctions and be banned from doing business with the U.S. In response, U.S. crude oil futures rose by $1.03 to $59.24 per barrel. Trump has continued his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aiming to halt the country's oil exports, which he claims fund militant groups in the Middle East. His comments appear to target China, which imports over 1 million barrels per day from Iran, though experts believe sanctions will have limited impact unless aimed at China's state-owned enterprises. These remarks reflect Trump’s strategy of negotiating through strength, while continuing efforts to reach a new deal with Iran on its nuclear program.

Canada:  Imperial Oil (IMO.TO) reported a rise in first-quarter profit, mainly driven by stronger margins in its refining and fuel sales segment. The completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion helped Canadian producers by improving access to international markets, bypassing the U.S. Imperial's CEO noted benefits from improved oil transport capacity and stronger downstream profitability in Canada. Despite higher petroleum product sales and crude oil realization, the company saw declines in upstream production, throughput volumes, and refinery utilization. The results reflect a broader trend of strong North American refining margins amid resilient demand and tight global supply.

Exxon: ExxonMobil beat Wall Street’s first-quarter profit estimates, earning $7.71 billion, largely due to increased oil and gas production from Guyana and the Permian Basin. The company returned $9.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, reinforcing its $20 billion annual repurchase goal. CEO Darren Woods emphasized Exxon’s resilience amid market uncertainty, while production rose to 4.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 3.78 million a year ago. Despite the strong upstream performance, refining profits dropped to $827 million from $1.38 billion. Exxon is also engaged in an arbitration dispute with Chevron over Hess's stake in a Guyana oil venture, with a key hearing set for May 26.

Market Overview: Oil prices fell on Friday as traders closed positions ahead of an OPEC+ meeting and amid cautious optimism about easing U.S.-China trade tensions. Both Brent and WTI crude were heading for weekly losses of about 7%,the steepest in a month, due to fears of a global economic slowdown reducing oil demand. Although China signaled a possible willingness to negotiate with the U.S., uncertainty remains high, especially as Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers. OPEC+ is expected to discuss accelerating output hikes at its May 5 meeting, as members prepare to unwind supply cuts despite weak demand. Analysts warn that rising non-OPEC+ supply and sluggish demand growth could force the group to accept lower prices regardless of timing.

U.S. refinery utilization started 2025 at 93%, but dropped below 90% in mid-January, finishing the quarter at 86%. The Midwest had high utilization, staying above 90% for most of the quarter, except for the last week. West Coast utilization fell sharply from 80-90% in January and February to below 75% in March, due to outages at PBF Energy’s Torrance and Martinez refineries in California. East Coast utilization began the year at 83% but plummeted below 60% in late February and March, primarily due to seasonal maintenance and a major turnaround at Phillips 66’s Bayway refinery. The Gulf Coast saw a rebound in March as seasonal maintenance ended and refiners began preparing for the summer demand season.

Oil prices dropped over 1% on Friday, marking their steepest weekly loss since late March, as traders grew cautious ahead of an OPEC+ meeting rescheduled to Saturday. The group is debating whether to implement a larger oil output hike in June or maintain a smaller increase, amid concerns about weakening global demand due to U.S.-China trade tensions. Despite some tentative optimism around renewed trade talks, market focus has shifted primarily to OPEC+ decisions, especially as Saudi Arabia appears reluctant to support prices through further supply cuts. Additional pressure on prices was limited by strong U.S. job data and rising equity markets, while a threat of new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil buyers could curb global supply. U.S. oil production growth also shows signs of slowing, with a decline in active drilling rigs offering some longer-term support for oil prices.