OPEC+: UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei stated that OPEC+ is working hard to balance the oil market while also ensuring sufficient investment in supply. Since 2022, OPEC+ has implemented multiple production cuts to support prices, but began easing some of these in April with larger-than-expected increases for May and June. Al Mazrouei emphasized the importance of monitoring rising global demand, warning that underinvestment could lead to market surprises. He also noted that maintaining market stability requires efforts beyond just the OPEC+ group.
Norwegian Oil Investment: Norwegian oil and gas investments are projected to reach a record high in 2025, rising to 269.1 billion crowns ($26.62 billion USD), before declining in 2026 to an estimated 206.6 billion crowns. These forecasts typically increase as companies finalize their budgets closer to the new year. Several new fields are expected to be developed in 2024 and 2025, including up to 14 projects from Vaar Energi aimed at boosting output near existing platforms. However, the statistics office warned that these new developments are unlikely to prevent an overall investment decline in 2026.
U.S. and Canadian Rig Count: U.S. crude oil net rig count decreased by 8 rigs to 465 rigs for the week ended May 23rd. U.S. crude basins changed within the Permian (-3), Williston (-2), Eagle Ford (-2), Admore Woodford (-1), Arkoma Woodford (-1), Barnett (-1), Cana Woodford (-1), Marcellus (-1), “Other” basins (+1), and the Utica (+3). US oil rig count is down 18 rigs month-over-month and lower by 32 rigs year-over-year. Canadian crude oil net rig count decreased by 3 rigs to 71 rigs for the week ended May 23rd. U.S. crude basins changed within the Foothills Front (-3), Northwestern Alberta (-1), and Northeastern Alberta (+1). Canadian oil net rig count is down 10 rigs month-over-month and higher by 7 rigs year-over-year.
Market Overview: Oil prices remained steady as reduced trade tensions balanced concerns about a potential supply increase from OPEC+. The market is waiting for clarity from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where a July production hike of 411,000 barrels per day may be finalized. U.S. President Trump’s delay of EU tariffs and Russia’s uncertain stance on output hikes added to the cautious optimism. Meanwhile, uncertainty over Iran’s nuclear talks and potential sanctions continues to influence supply expectations.
#2 ULSD Heating Oil
Diesel prices are off to a relatively flat and boring start following the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday. Diesel will look to test its 30 day moving average (orange) of $2.1017 today as a line of resistance. We'll look to see if diesel is able to settle higher than its 30 day moving average by the time we reach the close later this afternoon. Prices have continued to slowly move lower following the news of OPEC+ June production increase. With the risk of another production increase coming in July, traders have remained cautious.
Oil prices fell by 1% on Tuesday due to concerns about a potential oversupply, as Iranian-U.S. nuclear talks showed some progress and OPEC+ is expected to raise production. While no changes are anticipated at OPEC+’s Wednesday meeting, a more significant output increase is likely to be decided during a follow-up meeting on Saturday. The U.S.-Iran negotiations remain complex, with unresolved issues like uranium enrichment, but any deal could bring more Iranian oil to market. U.S. oil inventories are estimated to have risen by about 500,000 barrels last week, adding to supply concerns. On the supportive side, a temporary production halt in Canada due to wildfires and eased trade tensions between the U.S. and EU helped limit price declines.
