U.S. and China Relations: China and the United States are expected to send delegates to Switzerland to meet—potentially the first step in resolving the trade war that has been stoked recently by a fervor of tariff policies from the United States. The talks are expected to start this weekend, but the market is signaling optimism over the meeting. 

U.S. Crude Production: Crude production in the United States may have peaked according to some companies in the industry. Some producers have signaled a cut in spending, and as a byproduct, production levels may decrease. Crude oil prices make it harder for these companies to be profitable, and recent OPEC+ planned increases may keep those companies production efforts contained. 

U.S. Inventory Data: The Department of Energy will release inventory data this morning for the week ending last Friday. The release is due out at 10:30AM EST (9:30am CST). According to estimates by Reuters, crude stocks may have decreased 800k bbl. The American Petroleum Institute (API) value suggest a draw of 4.5 million bbl last week. 

Market Overview: Petroleum futures are beginning the day mixed with WTI slightly up and finished products just below their opening values. Sentiment overnight appears to look fondly on the reported meeting between U.S. and Chinese delegates, hoping for a light at the end of the tunnel for the trade war that has been ongoing between the two largest economies. Expectation for physical inventory builds on distillate and gasoline inventories are helping keep a lid on products. 

U.S. production of renewable fuels has jumped considerably in the last parts of 2024 and early 2025. The production levels of both Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and all other renewable fuels doubled in the December 2024 - February 2025 period. Production points for SAF prior to this period were only two locations in the United States, plants in Paramount, CA and another in Great Falls, MT. However, in the time period described above, additional plants opened in Port Arthur, TX, Rodeo, CA, Reno, NV, and Kapolei, HI - according to EIA reporting. The growing SAF production is likely going to continue to contribute to growth of the "other" category, as many of those fuels are byproducts of SAF production.