Markets are trading mixed overnight with corn and wheat seeing follow-through to the downside after the weak performance to start the week on larger Russian wheat production ideas. Old crop beans are the strongest leg again with beans able to see small gains after yesterday’s export inspections showed contra-seasonal strength.
Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net sellers of 20k corn to push the net short out to 161k, net sellers of 1k beans to reduce the net long to 22k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short back out to 97k.
Crop progress showed corn rated 71% g/e (70 expected), beans rated 68% g/e (68 expected),spring wheat rated 53% g/e (51 expected), and winter wheat rated 54% g/e (52expected).
US and Chinese trade representatives are meeting for the 2nd day in London. Day one talks were lacking of many details, but US trade reps described the talks as “fruitful” and called it a “good meeting”.
Russia said their 2025 grain harvest would be 135 mmt, which would be up from 130 mmt last year. They said 93% of their winter grains were in normal condition.
Corn posted a bearish outside down day on Monday with the market dropping to a new low close and hitting new lows this morning. The market is oversold as it seeks out support. Next major support is 4.27 and resistance is now 4.48.
Beans posted a higher high and higher low to start the week but finished with small losses with the market hitting short-term trendline resistance and closing lower. The market is a bit overbought after recent relative strength. Support is 10.40 and resistance 10.57 and 10.60.
Corn is hitting new recent lows overnight with a lack of weather concerns and expectations that US corn exports will slow driving another wave of fund selling to start this week. The market is seeing a contra-seasonal move lower as this is typically a time when risk premium would be added. Better selling opportunities are expected down the road, but until the market shows some signs of a technical bottom, producers can look at using options to establish floors with upside.
Beans have performed well to start the week relative to the corn and wheat with optimism that there will be good news from the US/China trade talks in London sparking buying. While things appear to be moving in the right direction in those meetings, the global supply is still estimated to be very comfortable. Producers can use options to reduce downside price risk.
Corn down 1-2
Beans up 2-4