Markets are trading mixed overnight in a quiet trade as we head into the Dec. USDA report, which will be out at 11 this morning. December reports are typically uneventful with no major adjustments expected from the USDA today.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net buyers of 1k corn to push the net long to 101k, net sellers of 3k beans to push the net short out to 73k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 61k.

China soybean imports for the month of November were estimated down 9% from the same period a year ago, but the country remains on track to import a record amount of beans for the 2024 calendar year.

China lowered their 2024 corn production forecast from 297.01 mmt to 293.84 mmt (USDA 292), citing rains during harvest.

Russian wheat exporters said they would cooperate with the Egyptian military agency that had taken over imports of strategic commodities. They had previously dealt with GASC.

Russia refuted the report from last week that 37% of their winter wheat crop was in poor condition, saying “the condition of Russian winter crops may not be as bad as leaked data suggest as the figures do not adjust for the fact that many plants sprout later due to climate change.”

China arrested their former agriculture minister for suspected bribery.

Spain has reportedly booked 400-500 tmt of US corn over the last couple weeks as South American offers were too high and they were concerned about the quality of Ukraine crops. Their purchases are believed to be the largest since 2018.

Corn posted another higher high, higher low, and higher close on Monday with the market running into trendline resistance before slowing. The market is overbought after recent with resistance at 4.42 and support below the market at 4.23.

Beans posted a bearish outside down day to start the week with prices hitting trendline resistance and then reversing to close lower. The market is balanced with potential for a large move from this area. Support is 9.80 and resistance 10.09.

Corn is trading near the highest levels since mid-summer and roughly 70 cents above the lows that were traded in late August as the US continues to see strong demand and corn movement from producers is slow. With that said, supply is still viewed as adequate with range-bound trade expected over time. With the market at resistance, producers can look at option strategies to protect downside risk.

Beans continue to see their sideways trade with long-term support at 9.80 able to hold, but buyers also unwilling to chase the market higher with a potential record crop expected out of South America. The market is balanced ahead of the USDA report today with potential for a large move in either direction.  With global supplies large and the market testing 9.80 support multiple times, there is risk that there will be another leg lower. Producers should look at puts to cover downside risk on unsold bushels.

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Corn down 1

Beans up 3-4