Markets are trading mixed overnight with wheat bouncing after hitting new lows on Wednesday and then recovering to finish with small gains while corn and beans are hovering on either side of unchanged in a very quiet trade.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 4k corn to reduce the net long to 99k, net sellers of 5k beans to push the net short to 80k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 63k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 378.2 tmt (250-550 expected), corn 1,732.4 tmt (750-1,500), n/c corn 22.1 tmt (0-200), beans 2,312.7 tmt (1,100-2,500), n/c beans .2 (0-75), meal 276 tmt (150-550), n/c meal 4.5 (0-50), and oil 19.5 (10-60).

Strong corn and bean sales with wheat within the range of expectations.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production off 46k bbls per day to 1,073k bbls with stocks up 134k bbls to 23,003k bbls. Weekly production was 315m gallons with a pace of around 305m to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast.

Stats Canada estimated their 2024 wheat crop at 35 mmt (35.04 expected) and canola crop 17.8 mmt (18.51 expected).

A frontrunner in the Romanian presidential said he would ban Ukraine exports through Romania if elected.

Russian wheat for the 2025 crop that is in poor condition or have not sprouted is at an historically large 37%. 5.48m hectares of winter crops are in good condition, which is the smallest in 23 years.

China’s state grain company Sinograin said they would continue to increase the scale of domestic corn purchases and increase storage in major corn areas in the future.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Wednesday with prices pulling back within their recent range. Directional indicators remain neutral and balanced.  Support for March is 4.23 with resistance 4.42.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Wednesday with prices testing support at the bottom of the range again, but finishing above. Directional indicators are neutral with potential for a large move from this area.  Support for Jan. is near 9.80 and resistance 10.09.
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Corn continues to chop within its recent trading range as a lack of market-moving news is leading to an uneventful, sideways trade. Demand is strong and supply is adequate, which is expected to produce a sideways trade for the foreseeable future. Hold off on sales until the market trades into the upper end of the range, but there is nothing on the radar right now that is likely to push us out of the range.

Beans dropped to the low end of their recent range again yesterday, but long-term support at 9.80 was able to hold again. The bearish outlook driven by expectations for record South American production is still in place with the repeated tests of support near 9.80 likely meaning the market will eventually push through to the downside.  Producers can buy puts to protect unsold

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Corn mixed

Beans up 1-2

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