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Posted on:
November 13, 2024

Markets are trading lower across the board in a relatively quiet trade as an uncertain outlook for US trade and biofuel policy is limiting buying interest in corn/beans, while improved wheat ratings weigh on that market.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to reduce the net long to 43k, net sellers of 6k beans to push the net short out to 48k, and net sellers of 6k wheat to push the net short out to 44k.

Export inspections were within the range of expectations yesterday morning.

Crop progress showed corn harvest 95% (95% expected), bean harvest 96% (97% expected), wheat rated 44% g/e (44% expected), and wheat planting 91% (93% expected).

Soybean oil came under pressure on Tuesday as uncertainty over the biofuel industry moving forward is concerning for soybean oil demand. Lee Zeldin, the expected pick to run the EPA, is viewed as an opponent of the biofuel industry.

A COFCO executive said China’s soybean imports are expected to drop 9.5% in the marketing year ending September 2025 to 98.8 mmt. USDA estimates their imports at 109 mmt.

France Agrimer cut their soft wheat exports within and outside the EU with exports now forecast down 40% from a year ago.

Ukraine has exported just over half of the government agreed 16.2 mmt of wheat available for their current marketing year.

Brazil soymeal exports in 2024 are expected to set a new record, beating the prior record set in 2023.

Russia said their winter wheat area for the 25/26 season would shrink to 15.4m ha, which would be the smallest planted since the fall of 2017. They estimated wheat production would be 84.5 mmt, which is above 81.5 mmt this, year but much smaller than 91.5 mmt and 92 mmt the prior two years.

China saw another round of bad economic data overnight with recent stimulus measures doing little to spark their economy.

Technical trends have corn with a bullish bias, beans a neutral bias, and wheat now in a downtrend.

Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Tuesday but finished with losses with the market hitting resistance at the top of the recent range and then finishing lower. The market is correcting from overbought with room to pull-back as that happens. Support is 4.24 and resistance 4.30-4.40.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close as the market is swinging from the top of the recent range to the lower end. Support for January is 10.00 and resistance 10.30-10.40.

Corn is pulling back overnight with prices correcting after hitting the top of the trading range late last week and then again yesterday. The outlook is little changed with a comfortable supply outlook expected to keep the market within its recent range. Look for more downside in the near-term as the market corrects from overbought.

Beans traded sharply lower yesterday with a lower bean oil market leading the move on an uncertain outlook for biofuel policy in the US. Beans already have a supply problem despite expectations for record crush. If crush margins get hit, that problem only gets worse. Beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and can use options to protect remaining unsold bushels.

Corn down 2

Beans down 2-3

‍

Skip to Content
Posted on:
November 13, 2024

Markets are trading lower across the board in a relatively quiet trade as an uncertain outlook for US trade and biofuel policy is limiting buying interest in corn/beans, while improved wheat ratings weigh on that market.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to reduce the net long to 43k, net sellers of 6k beans to push the net short out to 48k, and net sellers of 6k wheat to push the net short out to 44k.

Export inspections were within the range of expectations yesterday morning.

Crop progress showed corn harvest 95% (95% expected), bean harvest 96% (97% expected), wheat rated 44% g/e (44% expected), and wheat planting 91% (93% expected).

Soybean oil came under pressure on Tuesday as uncertainty over the biofuel industry moving forward is concerning for soybean oil demand. Lee Zeldin, the expected pick to run the EPA, is viewed as an opponent of the biofuel industry.

A COFCO executive said China’s soybean imports are expected to drop 9.5% in the marketing year ending September 2025 to 98.8 mmt. USDA estimates their imports at 109 mmt.

France Agrimer cut their soft wheat exports within and outside the EU with exports now forecast down 40% from a year ago.

Ukraine has exported just over half of the government agreed 16.2 mmt of wheat available for their current marketing year.

Brazil soymeal exports in 2024 are expected to set a new record, beating the prior record set in 2023.

Russia said their winter wheat area for the 25/26 season would shrink to 15.4m ha, which would be the smallest planted since the fall of 2017. They estimated wheat production would be 84.5 mmt, which is above 81.5 mmt this, year but much smaller than 91.5 mmt and 92 mmt the prior two years.

China saw another round of bad economic data overnight with recent stimulus measures doing little to spark their economy.

Technical trends have corn with a bullish bias, beans a neutral bias, and wheat now in a downtrend.

Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Tuesday but finished with losses with the market hitting resistance at the top of the recent range and then finishing lower. The market is correcting from overbought with room to pull-back as that happens. Support is 4.24 and resistance 4.30-4.40.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close as the market is swinging from the top of the recent range to the lower end. Support for January is 10.00 and resistance 10.30-10.40.

Corn is pulling back overnight with prices correcting after hitting the top of the trading range late last week and then again yesterday. The outlook is little changed with a comfortable supply outlook expected to keep the market within its recent range. Look for more downside in the near-term as the market corrects from overbought.

Beans traded sharply lower yesterday with a lower bean oil market leading the move on an uncertain outlook for biofuel policy in the US. Beans already have a supply problem despite expectations for record crush. If crush margins get hit, that problem only gets worse. Beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and can use options to protect remaining unsold bushels.

Corn down 2

Beans down 2-3

‍