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Posted on:
November 15, 2024

Markets are trading higher overnight with beans catching the best bid after seeing the worst losses on Thursday. The rally in the US$ has paused, taking some of the selling pressure off ag markets this morning.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 10k corn to reduce the net long to 28k, net sellers of 11k beans to push the net short out to 61k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short out to 54k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 380.1 tmt (250-550 expected), n/c wheat 0 (0-50), corn 1,315.1 tmt (1,250-2,600), n/c corn 0 (0-100), beans 1,555.4 tmt (1,000-2,200), n/c beans 0 (0-100), meal 302.4 tmt (175-500), n/c meal 0 (0-40), and oil 16.5 (5-60).

Corn sales were within the range of estimates, but were a bit disappointing at the bottom of the range. Bean and wheat sales were right at the middle of their range of estimates.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 8k bbls per day to 1,113k bbls. Stocks were up by 19k bbls to 22,039k bbls. Production continues to run above levels necessary to hit the USDA’s forecast, but this is also the time of the year when production is the highest.

NOPA crush for October will be out at 11 and is expected to come in at 196.843 mbu, which is up 3.7% from a year ago. The USDA currently forecasts crush to be up 5.4% year over year. This month’s numbers are somewhat skewed by downtime taken at and ADM crush plant in Des Moines.

French winter wheat sowing hit 78% complete, which is ahead of the pace from a year ago, but behind the average for this date of 83%.

The Buenos Aires grains exchange reported Argentine bean planting at 20.1% complete with planting surging after recent rains. They reported corn planting 38.6% complete.

Ukraine grain harvest is 95.7% complete with corn harvest 88% complete. The ministry forecasts their corn crop at 25 mmt (USDA 26.2) and wheat crop at 22 mmt (USDA 22.9).

RIN prices for cellulosic biofuel production credits fell to their lowest levels in over a year earlier this week after the EPA proposed a partial waiver to its 2024 supply mandates.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close with the drop stopping at the 20 DMA support. The market is oversold after recent losses. Support for Dec. is now 4.10 and resistance 4.24 then 4.30.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and sharply lower close on Thursday with the market dropping back to the bottom of its recent range. The market is oversold after the recent losses.  Support is 9.80 and resistance 10.00.

Corn has pulled back within its recent range this week. The outlook for a range-bound trade is unchanged with continued strong demand to provide buying under the market, but a balance sheet that has room for demand to increase without becoming overly tight is an upside limiting factor. Look for the range-trade to continue.

Beans dropped to the bottom of their recent range yesterday with US$ strength, uncertainty regarding the future of the US renewable diesel industry, and most importantly, expectations for a massive South American crop all weighed. Beans have the weakest price outlook moving forward with beans expected to struggle unless corn is trading higher and providing some spillover buying.

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Corn down 1

Beans up 6-9

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Skip to Content
Posted on:
November 15, 2024

Markets are trading higher overnight with beans catching the best bid after seeing the worst losses on Thursday. The rally in the US$ has paused, taking some of the selling pressure off ag markets this morning.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 10k corn to reduce the net long to 28k, net sellers of 11k beans to push the net short out to 61k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short out to 54k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 380.1 tmt (250-550 expected), n/c wheat 0 (0-50), corn 1,315.1 tmt (1,250-2,600), n/c corn 0 (0-100), beans 1,555.4 tmt (1,000-2,200), n/c beans 0 (0-100), meal 302.4 tmt (175-500), n/c meal 0 (0-40), and oil 16.5 (5-60).

Corn sales were within the range of estimates, but were a bit disappointing at the bottom of the range. Bean and wheat sales were right at the middle of their range of estimates.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 8k bbls per day to 1,113k bbls. Stocks were up by 19k bbls to 22,039k bbls. Production continues to run above levels necessary to hit the USDA’s forecast, but this is also the time of the year when production is the highest.

NOPA crush for October will be out at 11 and is expected to come in at 196.843 mbu, which is up 3.7% from a year ago. The USDA currently forecasts crush to be up 5.4% year over year. This month’s numbers are somewhat skewed by downtime taken at and ADM crush plant in Des Moines.

French winter wheat sowing hit 78% complete, which is ahead of the pace from a year ago, but behind the average for this date of 83%.

The Buenos Aires grains exchange reported Argentine bean planting at 20.1% complete with planting surging after recent rains. They reported corn planting 38.6% complete.

Ukraine grain harvest is 95.7% complete with corn harvest 88% complete. The ministry forecasts their corn crop at 25 mmt (USDA 26.2) and wheat crop at 22 mmt (USDA 22.9).

RIN prices for cellulosic biofuel production credits fell to their lowest levels in over a year earlier this week after the EPA proposed a partial waiver to its 2024 supply mandates.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close with the drop stopping at the 20 DMA support. The market is oversold after recent losses. Support for Dec. is now 4.10 and resistance 4.24 then 4.30.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and sharply lower close on Thursday with the market dropping back to the bottom of its recent range. The market is oversold after the recent losses.  Support is 9.80 and resistance 10.00.

Corn has pulled back within its recent range this week. The outlook for a range-bound trade is unchanged with continued strong demand to provide buying under the market, but a balance sheet that has room for demand to increase without becoming overly tight is an upside limiting factor. Look for the range-trade to continue.

Beans dropped to the bottom of their recent range yesterday with US$ strength, uncertainty regarding the future of the US renewable diesel industry, and most importantly, expectations for a massive South American crop all weighed. Beans have the weakest price outlook moving forward with beans expected to struggle unless corn is trading higher and providing some spillover buying.

‍

Corn down 1

Beans up 6-9

‍