Markets are trading lower across the board with beans seeing the biggest losses with weakness in South American cash markets driving the losses. Corn and wheat are also lower with an evacuation of the US embassy in Kyiv not prompting much of a response from the grain markets.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to reduce the net long to 105k, net sellers of 5k beans to push the net short out to 63k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 46k.
Brazil soybean oilseed lobby Abiove estimated their 2024/25 soybean production at 167.7 mmt (USDA 169).
China soybean imports from the US in October were double the level from a year ago, which was the 7th consecutive month of y-o-y outperformance. Future Chinese interest is concerning, however, with limited bids from China in the time period when South American supplies typically start to flow into export channels.
Russian wheat area is seen dropping for the 2025/26 marketing year as this year’s short crop combined with low prices have led to major losses for growers there.
Soft wheat exports from the EU are down 31% from the same point in last year’s marketing year.
Corn posted a bearish intraday reversal on Tuesday with the market hitting resistance at 4.30 and reversing. We’re seeing follow-through selling this morning with prices dropping into to the middle of the recent range. Support for Dec. is 4.20 and resistance 4.30.
Beans posted a bearish intraday reversal on Tuesday with prices taking out Monday’s high and then reversing to close sharply lower with prices dropping toward long-term support overnight. The repeated tests of support suggest an eventual push through to the downside. Support is 9.80 and resistance 10.00.
Corn is starting the day with small losses as the market appears like it will be contained by the strike prices (4.20 and 4.30) that have the greatest open interest for option expiration on Friday. Look for the range-trade to continue.
Beans finished weak on Tuesday and have dropped to the lower end of their recent range this morning. Offers out of South America are getting more aggressive as the impending massive Brazilian crop is expected to be a weight on the market for the foreseeable future. Producer can look at puts to protect unsold bushels.
Corn down 2-3
Beans down 8-10