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Posted on:
November 26, 2024

Markets are trading mixed overnight with grains relatively quiet as we head into December first notice day. Outside markets had some volatility initially last night with equity futures selling off hard on the news that Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on China. Equity markets have recovered those early losses, however, and are back to trading near all-time highs this morning.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to reduce the net long to 109k, net buyers of 2k beans to reduce the net short to 75k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short out to 60k.

Crop progress showed winter wheat rated 55% g/e (51 expected), winter wheat was 97% planted (98 average), and wheat emerged 89% (89 average).

APK-Inform said Ukraine experienced mostly favorable weather for winter crops during the month of November, but they also said many crops are behind on maturity due to the extended dry period they had experienced earlier in the fall.

European and Australian canola prices are pushing to multi-month highs following short crops last year in both growing areas.

The U.S. dollar surged in early trade last night following Trump’s Truth Social announcement about tariffs, but it is now trading lower on the session after posting a potential blow-off top on Friday.

Sovecon lowered their Russian wheat and overall grain export forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year due to expectations of stricter export quotas. They dropped wheat exports by 1.8 mmt to 44.1 mmt, which is well-below the USDA’s forecast of 48 mmt.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close to start the week with the market pulling back further within its recent trading range. The market is getting to be a bit oversold, but directional indicators are starting to turn more negative. Support for March is 4.29 and 4.23 with resistance 4.42.

Beans posted higher highs, higher lows, and higher closes to start the week, but prices did pull back from intraday highs to finish near the lows of the day. The market is correcting from oversold but continues to see directional indicators turn more negative. Support for January is near 9.80 and resistance 10.09.

Corn started the week under pressure with prices pulling back ahead of first notice day for the December contract. The outlook is unchanged with strong demand supportive while a relatively comfortable U.S. balance sheet and a lack of weather problems in South America right now are limiting the upside.  Look for range-trade to continue.

Beans bounced to start the week, but continue to trade near the lower end of their recent trading range. The outlook is unchanged with growing global supplies a bearish input.  Beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward with corn likely needing to find a low before beans have much potential to go higher.

Corn down 1

Beans up 4

‍

Skip to Content
Posted on:
November 26, 2024

Markets are trading mixed overnight with grains relatively quiet as we head into December first notice day. Outside markets had some volatility initially last night with equity futures selling off hard on the news that Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on China. Equity markets have recovered those early losses, however, and are back to trading near all-time highs this morning.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to reduce the net long to 109k, net buyers of 2k beans to reduce the net short to 75k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short out to 60k.

Crop progress showed winter wheat rated 55% g/e (51 expected), winter wheat was 97% planted (98 average), and wheat emerged 89% (89 average).

APK-Inform said Ukraine experienced mostly favorable weather for winter crops during the month of November, but they also said many crops are behind on maturity due to the extended dry period they had experienced earlier in the fall.

European and Australian canola prices are pushing to multi-month highs following short crops last year in both growing areas.

The U.S. dollar surged in early trade last night following Trump’s Truth Social announcement about tariffs, but it is now trading lower on the session after posting a potential blow-off top on Friday.

Sovecon lowered their Russian wheat and overall grain export forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year due to expectations of stricter export quotas. They dropped wheat exports by 1.8 mmt to 44.1 mmt, which is well-below the USDA’s forecast of 48 mmt.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close to start the week with the market pulling back further within its recent trading range. The market is getting to be a bit oversold, but directional indicators are starting to turn more negative. Support for March is 4.29 and 4.23 with resistance 4.42.

Beans posted higher highs, higher lows, and higher closes to start the week, but prices did pull back from intraday highs to finish near the lows of the day. The market is correcting from oversold but continues to see directional indicators turn more negative. Support for January is near 9.80 and resistance 10.09.

Corn started the week under pressure with prices pulling back ahead of first notice day for the December contract. The outlook is unchanged with strong demand supportive while a relatively comfortable U.S. balance sheet and a lack of weather problems in South America right now are limiting the upside.  Look for range-trade to continue.

Beans bounced to start the week, but continue to trade near the lower end of their recent trading range. The outlook is unchanged with growing global supplies a bearish input.  Beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward with corn likely needing to find a low before beans have much potential to go higher.

Corn down 1

Beans up 4

‍