Posted on:
October 10, 2024

Markets are trading mixed overnight with a wetter forecast in South America weighing on the beans while wheat is higher on continued uncertainty about global wheat supplies.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net even in the corn to leave the net short at 77k, net buyers of 3k beans to reduce the net short to 57k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 20k.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up by 23k bbls per day to 1,038k bbls. Stocks were off sharply by 1,305k bbls to 22,154k bbls.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 433.6 tmt (250-550 expected), corn 1,222.1 tmt (900-1,700) n/c corn 0 (0-50), beans 1,264.3 tmt (800-1,700), n/c beans -8.4 tmt (0-50), meal 165.7 tmt (-50-50), n/c meal 1.3 tmt (100-400), oil 3.8 (-10-10), and n/c oil 0 (0-20).

Ho-hum sales across the board with numbers coming in near the middle of the range of expectations.

Algeria banned French wheat from their recent large tender.

Egypt said they had wheat coverage for 5 ½ months. Similar announcements in the past have preceded announced tenders.

Strategie Grains/Expana raised their EU corn crop estimate by .2 mmt to 58.1 mmt.

Russia’s Ag Ministry has called for a meeting with the country’s major grain exporters with potential for the country to curb wheat exports after this year’s short crop.

The British farming and environment ministry estimated the English wheat crop down 22% from a year ago at 10 mmt with lower yields driving the losses.

The Rosario Exchange lowered their 2024/25 Argentine wheat production forecast to 19.5mmt (USDA 18) due to poor weather.

US Census Bureau data earlier in the week showed record ethanol exports for the period from September 2023 to August 2024 with August the fifth consecutive month with record exports.

Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday with he market finishing with a small gain. The market is oversold after recent losses with support at 4.20 able to hold so far. Support is 4.20 and resistance 4.40.

Beans finished with small gains on Wednesday with prices matching Tuesday’s low and then bouncing. The market is oversold, but directional indicators are turning more negative. Support is 10.00 and resistance 10.30.

Corn is set to head into tomorrow’s report well-balanced after correcting from the highs early last week. Unless the USDA absolutely shocks the market with a low national yield, corn prices are expected to remain somewhat range-bound with harvest pressure continuing to be an upside limiting factor while the likelihood of a smaller US crop is expected to spark buying on pull-backs.

Beans have seen a large pull-back going into the USDA report tomorrow as a wetter South American forecast has weighed. It’s hard to come up with a friendly scenario for the beans as US and global supplies are forecast at burdensome levels with a large adjustment to South American production necessary to change that. Producers should make sure bean sales are caught up and look at puts to protect any unpriced bushels.

Corn mixed

Beans down 2-4

Posted on:
October 10, 2024

Markets are trading mixed overnight with a wetter forecast in South America weighing on the beans while wheat is higher on continued uncertainty about global wheat supplies.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net even in the corn to leave the net short at 77k, net buyers of 3k beans to reduce the net short to 57k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 20k.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up by 23k bbls per day to 1,038k bbls. Stocks were off sharply by 1,305k bbls to 22,154k bbls.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 433.6 tmt (250-550 expected), corn 1,222.1 tmt (900-1,700) n/c corn 0 (0-50), beans 1,264.3 tmt (800-1,700), n/c beans -8.4 tmt (0-50), meal 165.7 tmt (-50-50), n/c meal 1.3 tmt (100-400), oil 3.8 (-10-10), and n/c oil 0 (0-20).

Ho-hum sales across the board with numbers coming in near the middle of the range of expectations.

Algeria banned French wheat from their recent large tender.

Egypt said they had wheat coverage for 5 ½ months. Similar announcements in the past have preceded announced tenders.

Strategie Grains/Expana raised their EU corn crop estimate by .2 mmt to 58.1 mmt.

Russia’s Ag Ministry has called for a meeting with the country’s major grain exporters with potential for the country to curb wheat exports after this year’s short crop.

The British farming and environment ministry estimated the English wheat crop down 22% from a year ago at 10 mmt with lower yields driving the losses.

The Rosario Exchange lowered their 2024/25 Argentine wheat production forecast to 19.5mmt (USDA 18) due to poor weather.

US Census Bureau data earlier in the week showed record ethanol exports for the period from September 2023 to August 2024 with August the fifth consecutive month with record exports.

Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday with he market finishing with a small gain. The market is oversold after recent losses with support at 4.20 able to hold so far. Support is 4.20 and resistance 4.40.

Beans finished with small gains on Wednesday with prices matching Tuesday’s low and then bouncing. The market is oversold, but directional indicators are turning more negative. Support is 10.00 and resistance 10.30.

Corn is set to head into tomorrow’s report well-balanced after correcting from the highs early last week. Unless the USDA absolutely shocks the market with a low national yield, corn prices are expected to remain somewhat range-bound with harvest pressure continuing to be an upside limiting factor while the likelihood of a smaller US crop is expected to spark buying on pull-backs.

Beans have seen a large pull-back going into the USDA report tomorrow as a wetter South American forecast has weighed. It’s hard to come up with a friendly scenario for the beans as US and global supplies are forecast at burdensome levels with a large adjustment to South American production necessary to change that. Producers should make sure bean sales are caught up and look at puts to protect any unpriced bushels.

Corn mixed

Beans down 2-4