Posted on:
October 11, 2024

Markets are trading higher across the board overnight with prices bouncing ahead of today’s USDA report, which is expected to show smaller US corn and bean production.

Managed funds ahead of the report on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 3k corn to push the net short out to 80k, net sellers of 3k beans to push the net short out to 60k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 19k.

USDA will be out at 11 with their October supply and demand update:

A table with numbers and textDescription automatically generated

Most focus will be on US production with slight downward adjustments expected. Global wheat balance sheets will also be of focus.

Russia announced they would raise wheat export duties by 41% in an effort to slow exports after the Grain Exporters Union said their current export pace “exceeded reasonable parameters based on the export potential”.

French corn harvest slowed this week due to wet weather with the crop 6% harvested vs. 40% on average.

Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister said their grain exports for 2024/25 would decrease to 40 mmt from 51 mmt a year ago due to heat-reduced corn and wheat crops.

Corn posted a bearish outside down day on Thursday with the market finishing at new lows as it continues to pull back within its recent range. Directional indicators are neutral ahead of today’s report with the market oversold.  Support is 4.20 and resistance 4.40.

Beans traded an inside day on Thursday with prices finishing near the bottom of the recent range. Directional indicators are neutral ahead of the report. Support is 10.00 and resistance 10.30.

Corn is going to be trading near the middle of the recent range ahead of the USDA report this morning. Production is expected to come down, but not to the point of making US balance sheets overly tight. The near-term outlook is unchanged with harvest pressure expected to limit the upside while shrinking US production and a bullish wheat outlook are expected to provide support on pull-backs, look for a sideways trade.

Beans are likely to be trading near the middle of their recent range ahead of the USDA numbers this morning. The outlook is not expected to change with bearish supplies in the US and globally expected to limit the market’s upside potential for now. Producers can look at puts to cover any unsold bushels.

Corn up 1

Beans up 4-5

Posted on:
October 11, 2024

Markets are trading higher across the board overnight with prices bouncing ahead of today’s USDA report, which is expected to show smaller US corn and bean production.

Managed funds ahead of the report on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 3k corn to push the net short out to 80k, net sellers of 3k beans to push the net short out to 60k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 19k.

USDA will be out at 11 with their October supply and demand update:

A table with numbers and textDescription automatically generated

Most focus will be on US production with slight downward adjustments expected. Global wheat balance sheets will also be of focus.

Russia announced they would raise wheat export duties by 41% in an effort to slow exports after the Grain Exporters Union said their current export pace “exceeded reasonable parameters based on the export potential”.

French corn harvest slowed this week due to wet weather with the crop 6% harvested vs. 40% on average.

Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister said their grain exports for 2024/25 would decrease to 40 mmt from 51 mmt a year ago due to heat-reduced corn and wheat crops.

Corn posted a bearish outside down day on Thursday with the market finishing at new lows as it continues to pull back within its recent range. Directional indicators are neutral ahead of today’s report with the market oversold.  Support is 4.20 and resistance 4.40.

Beans traded an inside day on Thursday with prices finishing near the bottom of the recent range. Directional indicators are neutral ahead of the report. Support is 10.00 and resistance 10.30.

Corn is going to be trading near the middle of the recent range ahead of the USDA report this morning. Production is expected to come down, but not to the point of making US balance sheets overly tight. The near-term outlook is unchanged with harvest pressure expected to limit the upside while shrinking US production and a bullish wheat outlook are expected to provide support on pull-backs, look for a sideways trade.

Beans are likely to be trading near the middle of their recent range ahead of the USDA numbers this morning. The outlook is not expected to change with bearish supplies in the US and globally expected to limit the market’s upside potential for now. Producers can look at puts to cover any unsold bushels.

Corn up 1

Beans up 4-5