Markets are trading mixed this morning with beans seeing nice gains after bull-spreads started to firm yesterday. The market recovered from intraday lows to minimize losses while the wheat is seeing modest pressure overnight. Corn is stuck between the two.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 10k corn to push the net short out to 50k, net sellers of 3k beans to push the net short out to 37k, and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 36k.

September NOPA crush beat expectations, coming in at 177.32 mbu (170.3 expected), and oil stocks were 1.066 b lb (1.083 expected).

Weekly crop progress showed corn rated 64% g/e (64 expected), corn harvest 47% (44 expected), bean harvest 67% (64 expected), and winter wheat planting 64% (66 expected).

France Agrimer left their forecast for French wheat exports outside of the EU unchanged on their recent supply and demand outlook at 4mmt. That is down 61% from a year ago due to their short crop.

India said they had increased the price that they will pay for new crop wheat from their domestic producers by 6% to encourage bigger acreage.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported grain exports thus far through the marketing year were 12.5mmt, which is up sharply from 7.7mmt at the same time a year ago.

Russia’s grain exporting union started reporting export prices following discussions with Ag Ministry officials last week, that they may need to restrict wheat exports this year.

Outside market pressure has eased with crude stabilizing after a sharp sell-off on Tuesday.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close again on Tuesday with prices approaching support at 4.00 before bouncing. The market is oversold with resistance at 4.20-4.30.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Tuesday, but the market finished well-off the intraday lows and is seeing some follow-through buying this morning. The market is oversold, so a corrective bounce is possible. November support is 9.80 and resistance 10.00 then 10.20-10.30.

Corn is seeing small gains overnight, following the bean market higher as both markets correct from oversold. Harvest is still ongoing to limit upside in the near-term, but downside risk from here isn’t that great either.

Beans recovered from lows yesterday with calendar spreads firming and then flat-price following. A better-than-expected crush report was supportive, but the bigger picture outlook is unchanged with large supplies in the US and globally expected to limit the market’s upside potential. Producers can continue to look at puts to cover downside risk.

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Corn up 1-2

Beans up 5-7

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