Markets are trading mixed this morning with corn and beans seeing follow-through to the downside after a soft finish on Friday. Wheat initially saw weakness too but has reversed early losses to see a mixed to higher trade currently. Outside markets have crude sharply lower after Israel didn’t hit Iranian energy infrastructure while equity markets are trading back near all time highs.

November first notice day is Thursday with basis contracts and longs in the November needing to be rolled by the close on Wednesday.

Friday’s CFTC report showed that for the week ending 10/22, managed funds were net buyers of 15k corn to reduce the net short to 71k, net sellers of 19k beans to push the net short out to 60k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 29k. The selling in beans was greater than expected while the corn and wheat positions were inline with expectations.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 7k corn with the net short now estimated at 70k, net sellers of 6k beans to push the net short to 61k, and net sellers of 6k wheat to push the net short to 33k.

The Rosario Exchange on Friday said they thought Argentina’s wheat exports would be the second highest year on record at 13.3 mmt for the 2024/25 marketing year. The USDA currently estimates their exports at 11.5 with harvest at 19.5 mmt (USDA 18).

China’s Commerce Ministry said they opposed the US decision to add several Chinese companies to its export restriction lists with a spokesman urging the US to “correct its wrongdoings”.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Friday with the market gapping lower overnight before stabilizing. The market is starting to correct from overbought with the market working back toward the middle of its recent range.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Friday with the market gapping open lower overnight. The market had gotten to be a bit overbought with the market correcting back near the middle of the range we’ve seen the last couple weeks. Support is 9.80 and resistance 10.00.

Corn is set to start the week with small losses as ongoing harvest pressure and a lack of new bullish news are limiting buying interest. The outlook is unchanged with the market expected to see the upside limited in the near-term by harvest while strong demand and the potential for supplies to get tight if we see adverse weather during the South American or US growing seasons is expected to limit the downside. Producers can use the current pull-back to re-establish upside exposure on previously sold bushels.

Beans are starting the week under pressure after finishing lower on Friday. The bean outlook is unchanged with large supplies in the US and globally expected to limit the upside with beans expected to be the weakest market moving forward. For beans to have much of a chance at rallying, corn likely needs to lead a move higher.

Corn down 1-2

Beans down 6-8

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