Markets are trading lower overnight with beans under the most pressure in a quiet trade. Corn and wheat are giving back a small portion of their gains from earlier in the week, but have both put impressive rallies early in the month of October.
Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 443.7 tmt (150-400 expected), n/c wheat 0 (0-50), corn 1,684.1 tmt (600-1,000), n/c corn 0 (0-50), beans 1,443.5 tmt (1,000-1,600), n/c beans 1 (0-50), meal -40.7 tmt (-50-60), n/c meal 228.6 tmt (140-350), oil .5 (0-40), and n/c oil 30.8 (0-50).
Very strong corn sales, solid bean sales, and wheat sales above the upper end of the range of expectations.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 6k corn to reduce the net short to 99k, net sellers of 1k beans to push the net short back out to 52k, and net buyers of 7k wheat to reduce the net short to 11k.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production recovering by 21k bpd to 1,015k bbls per day. Stocks were off by 65k bbls to 23,459k. Production is lagging the necessary pace to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast, but this is often a time of year when there is a bit of a slow down.
Egypt’s state grain buyer agreed to one of its largest ever direct wheat purchases from November to April. Monthly shipments are expected to be 510 tmt with total for the time period expected to be 3.12 mmt sourced from the Black Sea.
Russia’s grain exporters union said that export volumes from the first quarter of the 2024/25 marketing year were excessive and called for export limits via a quota system.
Sovecon cut their Russian wheat export forecast for 2024/25 to 47.6 mmt (USDA 48).
The European Commission said they would propose delaying the implementation of a policy to fight deforestation by a year, which would allow additional Brazilian soybeans to make their way into EU markets.
The longshoreman strike impacting imports and exports from Maine to Texas is ongoing, which is starting to impact movement of a very high percentage of goods in the US, including grains. At least 45 container vessels have been unable to unload since the strike began.
Kazakhstan asked Russia for proof of its claims that their wheat breached rules of plant health after Russia banned movement of Kazakh grain through the country on phytosanitary grounds.
The Kyiv School of Economics estimated the impact of the Russian invasion could cause indirect losses for the agricultural sector of $83b by the end of 2025 due to smaller harvests.
Corn posted another higher high, higher close, and new recent high close with the market entering an uptrend on Wednesday. The market is overbought after recent gains, so a correction before the move can resume is possible. Support is now seen at 4.20 with the next resistance area 4.41.
Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Wednesday, although the market did finish near the middle of the day’s range. The market is starting to correct from overbought. Support is 10.30 and 10.40 with resistance 10.70 and 10.80.
Corn hit new recent highs on Wednesday with shrinking production ideas in the US and a sharply higher wheat market driving the gains. he outlook for corn is somewhat neutral from current prices with US supplies expected to be adequate, but also far from burdensome. With that said, we do have harvest ramping up, which could limit further gains in the near term. Producers should make sure that sales that need to be made at harvest should be caught up.
Beans were the weak leg on Wednesday with the market finishing lower while corn and wheat hit new highs. The fundamental outlook for beans continues to be very bearish with US and global supplies forecast at burdensome levels. With harvest pressure expected to be a bearish factor for the next couple weeks, producers should make sure sales are caught up and look to use puts to cover any other production.
Corn down 2-3
Beans down 11-13