Markets are trading mixed this morning with beans bouncing modestly after seeing big losses on Tuesday while corn and wheat pull back after seeing solid gains on Tuesday.
November first notice day is tomorrow with pre-first notice selling expected to cease today.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net buyers of 4k corn to reduce the net short to 72k, net sellers of 5k beans to push the net short out to 72k, and net buyers of 6k wheat to reduce the net short to 31k.
EU wheat exports since the beginning of the 2024 marketing year are down 33% from a year ago. Exports are expected to be sharply lower following the smallest French wheat crop in decades.
Ukraine grain exports for the 2024/25 marketing year have totaled 14.1mmt thus far, which is well above the 8.9mmt that had been shipped a year ago.
The USDA attache in Ukraine estimated the Ukraine corn crop at 23.3 mmt (USDA 26.2) with exports forecast at 17.8 mmt (USDA 23).
Ukraine said they would launch a system of minimum export prices for the country’s key grain and oilseed shipments that is expected to be operational at the beginning of December.
EU soft wheat exports thus far through the marketing year have totaled 7.26 mmt, which is down 33% from a year ago.
China said they were willing to collaborate with Russia to deepen cooperation in the soybean industry, saying that agricultural cooperation is a key component of China-Russia bilateral relations.
Corn recovered most of the losses that were sustained on Monday, but the market failed to fill the gap that was left on the Sunday night open. Directional indicators are neutral with the market oversold after the recent pull-back. Support is 4.10 and 3.99. Resistance is 4.24.
Beans posted another lower low, lower high, and lower close on Tuesday with prices finishing at their lowest level since August. The market is on the verge of restarting the downtrend. Support for November is 9.65 and resistance 9.80 and 10.00.
Corn traded higher on Tuesday, following the lead of the wheat market and ignoring the sharply lower bean market. The outlook for corn is unchanged with a range-bound trade expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Supplies are adequate with little reason for aggressive buyers to step in unless the wheat market starts to rally. At the same time, supplies are tight enough where downside risk from here is not large. Producers can establish longer term re-owner ship strategies that should work if South American weather concerns develop.
Beans flushed to another new low on Tuesday with selling ahead of tomorrow’s first notice day weighing. South American weather is non-threatening with world supplies projected at burdensome levels. Beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward, but the selling pressure should ease after we get done with first notice day related selling today.
Corn down 1
Beans up 2-3