Markets are trading mixed this morning with beans seeing some follow-through to the upside after posting a bullish reversal from lows on Wednesday while the corn and wheat are under modest pressure as both continue to see a range-bound trade.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 4k corn to push the net short out to 76k, net buyers of 7k beans to reduce the net short to 65k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 29k.
Export sales this morning for wheat (300-600 expected), n/c wheat (0-75), corn (1,800-3,500), beans (1,600-2,800), n/c beans (0-150), meal (100-350), n/c meal (0-50), and oil (0-45).
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 1k bbls per day at 1,082k bbls. Stocks were off by 452k bbls to 21,771k bbls. Production again was well above levels necessary to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast.
Deliveries against the November bean contract came in at 97 contracts.
Sovecon lowered their Russian grain export forecast citing new government imposed export restrictions. They estimate wheat exports at 45.9 mmt (USDA 48).
Russia also accused the UK of using the Black Sea grain corridor to deliver weapons to Ukraine.
Ukraine said Russia launched a missile attack on a bridge in the Odessa region overnight.
Kazakhstan’s Ag Minister said he hoped to resolve issues with Russian restrictions on the import of Kazakh grain this week.
Rabobank estimated Brazil bean area would be up 1.5% from last year, increasing to 47m hectares. CONAB estimates Brazilian area at 47.3m. Rabobank estimated bean production at 167 mmt (USDA 169) and corn production at 125 mmt (USDA 127).
CF Industries reported a 68% jump in Q3 profit on strong prices for nitrogen fertilizers.
Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday with the market remaining range-bound. Prices are pushing to new recent lows this morning with the market oversold. Support is 4.10 and 3.99. Resistance is 4.24.
Beans posted a bullish key reversal on Wednesday with prices hitting a new low and then reversing to close above Tuesday’s high.The market is starting to correct from oversold, but the market remains at the bottom of its recent range. January support is 9.80 and resistance 10.00.
Corn continues to see a directionless, sideways trade as the market continues to be lacking a catalyst to spark aggressive buying or selling. There is potential for balance sheets to get tight if we see adverse weather in South America, which would lead to more US exports. Producers can look at longer-term bullish positions to re-establish upside on previously sold bushels, which would work if South American production prospects start to work lower.
Beans made a nice move higher on Wednesday after the pre-first notice day selling ran its course. The reversal from the lows is encouraging, but the supply issue isn’t going away anytime soon with corn likely needing to lead a bigger price recovery.
Corn down 1
Beans up 5