Posted on:
October 9, 2024

Markets are trading higher overnight with wheat seeing the best gains after a couple of days of the market trading. It's as if it has found a near-term low while the beans recover a small portion of Tuesday’s losses that were driven by harvest pressure, cash market weakness, and Chinese demand concerns.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 6k corn to push the net short out to 77k, net sellers of 12k beans to push the net short out to 60k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 22k.

The Rosario Grains Exchange reported that recent rains across core growing areas in Argentina were not enough for farmers to erase losses to many wheat fields and move forward with corn planting. They estimate Argentine wheat production at 20.5mmt (USDA 18).

EU soft wheat exports for the 2024/25 have totaled 6.35 mmt thus far, which is down 29% from the same period a year ago as exportable supplies out of the EU are down sharply following this year’s short crop.

Russia reported they had harvested 85mmt of wheat this year with about 10% of the area left to harvest. The Russian ag ministry estimated the crop between 86 and 94 mmt (USDA 83).

Russia said they had planted 13m ha of winter grain so far this fall with a total of 20m expected. Sovecon previously reported fall seeding was at an 11-year low as dryness in central regions of Russia are slowing progress.

Brazil said operations had begun following an expansion of their largest corn ethanol producer.

Corn posted a bearish outside down day on Tuesday with prices dropping further within the recent trading range. The market is oversold after recent losses with the market seeking out support near 4.20. Resistance is still above the market near 4.40.

Beans posted a bearish outside down day on Tuesday with the market taking out trendline support and finishing near the day’s lows. The market is oversold after recent losses, but there is more room to the downside as the market pulls back within its range. Next support is 10.00 and resistance is 10.30.

Corn failed to hold gains on Tuesday with harvest pressure and spillover weakness from the beans too much for the market to overcome with prices dropping to the lowest level in over a week. The outlook is unchanged with harvest pressure expected to be an upside limiter in the near-term while shrinking US production ideas are supportive. Look for sideways trade.

Beans traded sharply lower on Tuesday amid general commodity weakness on Chinese economic concerns and weakening US cash markets as rapid harvest is flooding the market with beans. With the bearish US and global supply outlooks, beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and consider buying puts on any other unpriced bushels.

Corn up 1-2

Beans up 2-4