Markets saw nice gains overnight, with wheat leading the move on more lower revisions to European wheat crops, prompting buyers to step in ahead of today’s numbers from the USDA. The USDA will be out at 11:00 a.m. with their September supply and demand updates.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 1k corn to push the net short out to 183k, net buyers of 1k beans to reduce the net short to 159k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 41k.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 19k bbls per day to 1,080k bbls. Stocks were up by 360k bbls to 23,714k bbls, which is a record for this week in the year.
Strategie Grains lowered their EU wheat production forecast by 2.1mmt to 114.4mmt, which puts their crop at the smallest in 12 years. They also lowered EU corn production by 2.1mmt to 57.9mmt on lower yields in central Europe, Romania, and Bulgaria. The Ukrainian Agrarian Council Farm Producers Union said the Ukraine crop could be 24-25 mmt (USDA 27.2).
The Rosario Exchange estimated Argentine bean acres would be up 7.5% from a year ago at the expense of corn acres, which they expect to drop by 21% from a year ago. They estimated corn harvest at 51-52 mmt (USDA 51) and bean harvest at 52-53 mmt (USDA 51).
China’s ag minister raised their 2023/24 soybean import forecast to 102 mmt (USDA 111.5). They expect imports next year to be 94.6 mmt (USDA 109).
Corn posted a lower low on Wednesday, but it reversed from there to finish with small gains. The market is range-bound with directional indicators balanced. Support for December is 4.05 and 4.00. Resistance is 4.10-4.20.
Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Wednesday, but prices did reverse from intraday lows to finish higher. The market is a bit oversold after the recent pullback. Directional indicators are neutral. Support for November is at 10.00 and resistance is 10.20-10.30.
Corn caught a bid overnight on smaller grain production estimates in Europe with the market working into the upper end of the recent range. There does seem to be potential for national corn yield to come in low today. Managed funds are expected to be buyers on pullbacks, but we will have harvest ramping up in the coming weeks to limit gains. Look for a range trade for now.
Beans caught a bid overnight with prices recovering toward the middle of the recent range. The bean outlook is expected to remain bearish with beans expected to lag the corn and wheat markets.
Corn up 3-4
Beans up 6-8