Posted on:
September 16, 2024

Markets are starting the week with losses, with wheat giving back a portion of last week’s gains, which pushed wheat to the highest levels since early July.

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds on the week ending 9/10 were net buyers of 44k corn to shrink the net short to 132k, net buyers of 23k beans to reduce the net short to 131k, and net buyers of 13k wheat to reduce the net short to 29k. Fund buying was greater than expected across the board.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 10k corn with the net short now estimated at 119k, net sellers of 2k beans to push the net short out to 124k, and net buyers of 7k wheat to reduce the net short to 21k.

NOPA crush for August will be out at 11:00 a.m. with the average guess of 171.325 mbu. That would be down from 182.881 mbu last month but would be a record for the month of August when plants typically take seasonal downtime.

Ukraine reported grain exports thus far through their marketing year at 8.7 mmt, which is well above the 5.9 mmt that they had moved at the same time a year ago.

Brazilian soybean planting is off to a slow start after they experienced an extremely dry “dry” season with farmers waiting for seasonal rains to pick up before pushing forward with soybean planting. Ag Rural estimated 0.06% of soybean area had been planted vs. 0.15% of the total area a year ago.

The US$ is under pressure to start the week again with the index on the verge of pushing to the lowest levels since the summer of 2023.

Corn posted higher highs, higher lows, and the highest close for the December contract since July. The market still has room to trade higher before it will be overbought. Support for December is 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30.

Beans posted a higher high and higher low on Friday, but reversed gains from early in the session to close lower.  Directional indicators are neutral with Support at 10.00 and resistance 10.20-10.30.

Corn finished at recent highs on Friday as funds have been buyers of corn on pullbacks as the hot finish to the growing season is bringing the USDA’s national yield forecast into question. The market looks to have potential to make a run at the 4.20-4.30 area in the near-term, but harvest pressure will likely limit gains beyond that. The funds have covered a big portion of their net short, but they are still expected to be buyers on pullbacks to limit losses.  Look for a sideways trade in the coming weeks.

Beans were weak to finish last week relative to the corn and wheat as spreaders bought grains and sold beans. With a bearish U.S. and global supply outlook, look for beans to continue to underperform the corn and wheat. With that said, don’t look for beans to drop to new lows as funds are expected to be buyers on further weakness and hedge pressure is expected to limit gains. Look for a sideways trade as we head into harvest.

Corn -2-3

Beans - down 1

Posted on:
September 16, 2024

Markets are starting the week with losses, with wheat giving back a portion of last week’s gains, which pushed wheat to the highest levels since early July.

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds on the week ending 9/10 were net buyers of 44k corn to shrink the net short to 132k, net buyers of 23k beans to reduce the net short to 131k, and net buyers of 13k wheat to reduce the net short to 29k. Fund buying was greater than expected across the board.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 10k corn with the net short now estimated at 119k, net sellers of 2k beans to push the net short out to 124k, and net buyers of 7k wheat to reduce the net short to 21k.

NOPA crush for August will be out at 11:00 a.m. with the average guess of 171.325 mbu. That would be down from 182.881 mbu last month but would be a record for the month of August when plants typically take seasonal downtime.

Ukraine reported grain exports thus far through their marketing year at 8.7 mmt, which is well above the 5.9 mmt that they had moved at the same time a year ago.

Brazilian soybean planting is off to a slow start after they experienced an extremely dry “dry” season with farmers waiting for seasonal rains to pick up before pushing forward with soybean planting. Ag Rural estimated 0.06% of soybean area had been planted vs. 0.15% of the total area a year ago.

The US$ is under pressure to start the week again with the index on the verge of pushing to the lowest levels since the summer of 2023.

Corn posted higher highs, higher lows, and the highest close for the December contract since July. The market still has room to trade higher before it will be overbought. Support for December is 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30.

Beans posted a higher high and higher low on Friday, but reversed gains from early in the session to close lower.  Directional indicators are neutral with Support at 10.00 and resistance 10.20-10.30.

Corn finished at recent highs on Friday as funds have been buyers of corn on pullbacks as the hot finish to the growing season is bringing the USDA’s national yield forecast into question. The market looks to have potential to make a run at the 4.20-4.30 area in the near-term, but harvest pressure will likely limit gains beyond that. The funds have covered a big portion of their net short, but they are still expected to be buyers on pullbacks to limit losses.  Look for a sideways trade in the coming weeks.

Beans were weak to finish last week relative to the corn and wheat as spreaders bought grains and sold beans. With a bearish U.S. and global supply outlook, look for beans to continue to underperform the corn and wheat. With that said, don’t look for beans to drop to new lows as funds are expected to be buyers on further weakness and hedge pressure is expected to limit gains. Look for a sideways trade as we head into harvest.

Corn -2-3

Beans - down 1