Markets are trading higher overnight with beans seeing the most strength after Chinese buyers returned from their Mid-Autumn Holiday.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net buyers of 3k corn to reduce the net short to 119k, net sellers of 1k beans to push the net short out to 126k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short out to 29k.
CONAB estimated Brazil’s 2024/25 bean crop at 166.28mmt (USDA 169). They estimated total corn production at 119.8 mmt (USDA 127).
The FOMC is expected to lower the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points today in response to increasing unemployment levels and signs that inflation has cooled to their target levels.
France Agrimer lowered their forecast for French non-EU wheat exports to 4 mmt, which was down from 7.5 mmt on their July forecast and down 61% from last year. They forecast French wheat stocks at 2.74 mmt, which is down 13.5% from a year ago. They forecast their corn crop at 13.4 mmt, which is up from 12 mmt a year ago.
Sovecon lowered their total Russian grain production forecast to 124.4 mmt from 128.4 mmt previously.
Indian grain industry officials said the current Indian curbs on grain traders and processors have not been enough to contain the rise in wheat prices during festival season. Tight government supplies have limited their ability to release large quantities of wheat reserves to tamp down prices.
Egypt’s supply ministry spokesman said they had wheat reserves to cover 6 months. Similar comments in the past have often preceded announced tenders.
Ukraine kept their forecast for 2025 winter wheat area at 4.5-5m ha despite the drought that has affected almost all regions.
Algeria said they were aiming to be self-sufficient in wheat by the end of 2025.
Corn’s trading range on Tuesday was identical to Monday’s with the market finishing with small gains. The market is trading at new recent highs overnight with prices testing the top of the recent range. The market is overbought, so may need to see more consolidation before there is much potential to breakout of the range to the upside. Support for Dec. is 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30.
Beans traded an inside day on Tuesday, finishing with small gains, but the market pushed through moving average resistance overnight with prices pushing to the upper end of the recent range this morning. The market is very well-balanced with potential for a sizable move from here. Support is at 10.00 and resistance 10.20-10.30.
Corn is seeing small gains overnight with the market trying to keep pace with a sharply higher bean market. New news is limited with US production ideas shrinking slightly due to the hot finish to the growing season while harvest pressure and US/Global balance sheets that can tolerate a smaller yield without being too tight are limiting gains. Look for a range-bound trade in the coming weeks with support near 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30.
Beans caught a bid in early trade last night with the gains increasing after the market took out the 50 DMA as Chinese traders returned from Holiday and appear to be in a buying mood. With that said, I’m not sure much has changed with harvest pressure and comfortable US and global supply outlooks expected to limit gains while Chinese buying and fund short-covering are expected to provide support. Look for a range-bound trade with support at 10.00 and resistance 10.20-10.30.
Corn up 1-2
Beans up 12-14