Markets are trading mostly higher overnight with an economic stimulus package announced in China that has a strong bid under the bean market again.
Crop progress showed corn rated 65% g/e (64 expected), and beans rated 64% g/e (63).
Managed funds were aggressive buyers to start the week with funds estimated as net buyers of 18k corn to reduce the net short to 130k, net buyers of 18k beans to reduce the net short to 97k, and net buyers of 7k wheat to reduce the net short to 21k.
The Chinese Central Bank announced measures overnight to reduce borrowing costs and inject more money into their economy as they deal with weak equity and real estate markets.
The EU crop monitoring service MARS lowered their EU corn yield forecast from 7.03 t/ha to 6.84 t/ha.
Sovecon estimated their total grain exports for Sep. at 5.2 mmt, which is down from 6.3 mmt in August and 5.9 mmt a year ago.
Ag Rural reported Brazil bean planting at .9%, which is behind the 1.9% of beans that had been planted at this time a year ago.
Ukraine’s state railways company said they intended to raise freight tariffs, which will lead to increased expenses for their grain producers.
Brazilian ethanol producer Raizen said they were more worried about their ongoing drought’s impact on sugar cane production during the 2025/26 growing season than the current crop.
Russia said they may have to revise their grain production forecast after grain-producing regions report final production estimates later this week. The current official forecast is production of 132 mmt, which is down from 148 mmt last year and 158 mmt the year before that.
Corn posted a bullish outside up day on Monday with prices barely taking out Friday’s lows and then closing at the top of the recent range with large gains. The market is still range bound, but there is room to trade higher before it will be overbought. Support for Dec. is 4.00-4.04 and resistance 4.20-4.30.
Beans pushed through their 50 DMA yesterday and surged from there to finish at the highest level since July. There is a gap at 10.48 ½, which is the next near-term upside objective. The market is overbought after recent gains with support now 10.30 and resistance 10.48-10.50.
Corn is testing the top of the recent trading range with the market within ¼ cent of the high that was traded on Sep. 6th. Shrinking US production estimates, dry weather in Brazil, shrinking global wheat supplies, and new Chinese stimulus measures are contributing to the strength. With that said, we still have US harvest firing up, which is expected to limit further gains in the coming weeks. With the market at the top of the range, producers should make sure they’re caught up on sales.
Beans surged to the upside on Monday after the market took out the 50 DMA. The market added more value overnight after China announced economic stimulus plans. Prices are within a couple cents of filling a gap that was left on July 29th, which will fulfill a near-term upside objective. With the global supply and demand outlook still very bearish, producers should make sure sales are caught up with the bean market expected to be the weakest leg moving forward.
Corn up 1-3
Beans up 6-7