Markets are mixed overnight with beans taking a breather after seeing large gains on Friday while wheat is seeing small gains after finishing Friday under pressure.
USDA will be out at 11 with their quarterly stocks report. Sept. 1st corn stocks are expected to be 1.844 bbu, bean stocks 351 mbu, and wheat stocks 1.973 bbu. All three are expected to be up considerably from a year ago.
Friday’s CFTC report showed for the week ending 9/24, funds were net buyers of 4k corn to reduce the net short to 131k, net buyers of 47k beans to reduce the net short to 75k, and net sellers of 1k beans to push the net short to 26k. Corn and wheat positions were as expected while the buying in beans was much larger than expected.
Funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 6k corn to reduce the net short to 123k, net buyers of 18k beans to reduce the net short to 56k, and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short to 26k.
Part of the strength in beans on Friday was spillover from the soymeal, which was boosted by news that Hurricane Helene would force the shut down of some crush plants in that part of the country, which sparked commercial short-covering in the meal.
The US$ continues to show signs of weakness after the Fed announcement that they would lower rates, which a breakout to the downside could potentially send the US$ to lows last seen in 2021 and 2022.
The European Commission lowered their forecast for usable production of common wheat in the EU to a 12-year low at 114.6mmt, which is down 9% from last year. They also lowered the forecast for corn production to 60.1mmt, which is down 4% from last year.
Ag Rural reported 2% of soybean planting was completed vs. 5.2% a year ago. Hot/dry weather continues to slow planting pace.
China reported their sow herd at 40.36m head, which is down 4.8% from a year ago.
Corn posted a bullish outside up day on Friday with prices hitting the top of their recent range and finishing there. The market is overbought after recent gains with support at 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30.
Beans regained their uptrend on Friday with prices posting a bullish outside up day with a sharply higher close. The market is overbought after recent gains with next resistance near 10.70 and then 10.80 with support at 10.30 and 10.20.
Corn is seeing small losses today, but is maintaining most of the gains from last week as we head into the Sept. 1st stocks report this morning. The corn outlook for the next few weeks is unchanged with harvest pressure expected to limit gains while the slow start to the Brazil planting season and dryness concerns there are expected to keep managed funds as buyers on pull-backs. With the market at the top of the recent range, producers should make sure any sales that need to be made at harvest are caught up.
Beans surged on Friday with the market squeezing out speculative shorts as the Brazilian growing season is slow to get underway. With that said, the longer-term supply outlook remains very bearish. Producers should make sure sales are caught up after the recent strength.
Corn down 1
Beans down 4-7
USDA stocks report out at 11 am central time