Markets are trading higher to start the month of April with corn and wheat seeing modest follow-through buying after finishing with gains following the quarterly stocks and acres report while beans are recovering a portion of their post-report losses. Moving beyond yesterday’s numbers, markets are waiting for tariff news with the Trump Admin. expected to provide some guidance on tariff policy tomorrow.
Managed funds to finish the month of March were estimated as net buyers of 6k corn to push the net long back out to 72k, net sellers of 10k beans to push the net short out to 34k, and net buyers of 8k wheat to reduce the net short to 94k.
USDA released a set of acre and stock numbers that deviated modestly from the pre-report estimates, but the trade action suggested larger corn acres were “priced in”.
The corn area combined with the USDA’s likely trend yield of 181 bpa would project U.S. ending stocks at a comfortable 2.2 bbu. The bean area combined with USDA’s trend yield of 52.5 bpa projects U.S. ending stocks at 294 mbu. Neither are overly tight, but they’re not so burdensome that we can’t expect the market to be sensitive to any weather issues during the growing season.
At the end of the day, it was one of the quieter March stocks and planting intentions reports with weather during the growing season expected to drive price direction moving forward.
February USDA soy crush will be out after the close today and is expected to be 188.7 mbu.
Trump is expected to unveil his tariff plan on April 2nd, which he is calling “Liberation Day”. Market participants across the board are eager for more guidance.
Australia wheat production is seen dropping 16% from a year ago with dry weather leading to the drop.
Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Monday with prices reversing losses from earlier in the day to finish with nice gains with the market seeing follow-through overnight. The market is on the verge of ending the downtrend. The market has corrected from oversold with overbought/sold indicators neutral. Support for May is 4.42 and resistance is 4.70.
Beans made a higher high and higher low on Monday, but the market posted a bearish reversal to finish with losses. Directional indicators are balanced with the market running into resistance at the upper end of its range yesterday. Support for May is 10.00 and resistance 10.20-10.30.
Corn traded higher after the USDA confirmed relatively tight old crop stocks along with a large year over year switch of bean acres to corn. Balance sheet projections for 2025/26 are comfortable, but old crop supplies are tight with farmer selling interest limited for now. The market’s ability to trade higher on Monday despite the bearish acre number suggests we can see a sideways trade for now. Producers should continue to look at ways to establish floors for new crop corn as seasonals are bearish through the end of May.
Beans had a bad reaction on report day with prices finishing lower despite the small bean area forecast. Global supplies are currently record large and while yesterday’s acre number projects relatively tight new crop stocks in the U.S., the global outlook will be for bearish, record supplies. Producers should continue to look at ways to protect the downside in old crop beans while new crop prices are expected to be sensitive to any weather concerns this summer.
Corn up 3-4
Beans up 1-3