Markets are under pressure overnight with prices giving back a portion of the large gains that we saw to start the 2nd quarter of the year. Market participants are anxiously awaiting guidance from Trump with new tariffs expected to be announced this afternoon on “Liberation Day”.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net buyers of 6k corn to push the net long to 78k, net buyers of 15k beans to reduce the net short to 19k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 92k.
Trump is expected to announce sweeping reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners this afternoon with the details reportedly still being finalized ahead of the announcement that is scheduled for 3 p.m. central this afternoon. The new announced duties are expected to go into effect immediately.
Stone X lowered their Brazil corn production forecast to 127.52 mmt (USDA 126). They estimated the bean crop at 167.54 mmt (USDA 169).
Ukraine grain exports through Romania for Jan-Feb dropped to 226 tmt, which was down from 1.33 mmta year ago. Ukraine has shifted back to exporting grain through their own ports despite Russian attacks on shipping and infrastructure.
Australia said the would stand up for their national interests in the face of U.S. tariffs that could impact their beef industry.
A U.S. oil and biofuel coalition met with the EPA to make the case for higher federal mandates for biomass diesel blending. Soybean oil traded sharply higher on Tuesday, likely related to the meeting.
Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Tuesday with prices seeing follow-through buying after closing firm on Monday. The market is balanced right now with May corn working into the upper half of the recent trading range. Support for May is 4.42 and resistance 4.70.
Beans posted a bullish outside up day on Tuesday with the market taking out the highs and lows that were traded on Monday and then finishing at recent highs. The market is overbought after recent gains with resistance 10.30 and support 10.00.
Corn has seen a sizable bounce from the lows that were traded on Friday with the market taking the bearish acreage data in stride. Old crop supplies in the U.S. and globally are tight and should be supportive for old crop contracts, but the outlook for new crop is less friendly. Producers should keep new crop hedges in place and increase coverage following recent gains.
Beans had an impressive day technically on Tuesday with the market moving to the upper end of the range that we’ve traded the last few weeks on biofuel optimism. The global bean supply outlook remains bearish with record supplies expected to limit upside potential despite the lower than expected acres the USDA announced earlier this week. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and use puts to protect unsold bushels.
Corn down 4-7
Beans down 2-5