It was another volatile night session with beans catching a bid on the headline that Trump wasn’t taking a hardline on trade with China and that he did not plan to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Corn and wheat had little reaction to the news and by this morning, corn/wheat were lower while beans were nearly 10 cents off their overnight highs. Equity markets are still sharply higher with Dow futures up 666 points.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 10k corn to reduce the net long to 115k, net buyers of 4k beans to push the net long to 28k, and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 99k.

Trump said high tariffs on China “will come down substantially”.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of bankers yesterday that he believed a trade deal with China could be reached and that current tariffs were unsustainable.

The U.S.$ is mounting a modest recovery this morning, bouncing .17 points with the index now at 99.08, which is still near 3-year lows.

The EU crop monitor service raised their soft wheat forecast, but they noted dryness in northern areas left some uncertainty.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Tuesday with the market seeing follow-through to the downside overnight. The market is testing key support near 4.80 this morning, which needs to hold to prevent a larger correction to the downside. There is room to trade lower as the market corrects from overbought. Support for July is at 4.80 and resistance now at 4.97.

Beans traded an inside day on Tuesday, finishing with small gains but remaining within the prior day’s range. The market hit the top of the trading range overnight but lack follow-through buying and is near the middle of the recent consolidation range this morning. The market is overbought after recent gains with support for July at 10.37 and resistance 10.59.

Corn is under pressure again this morning as the forecast looks to allow smooth planting for the majority of the U.S. corn crop, which Monday’s crop progress report showed was running just ahead of average. The outlook is unchanged that tightness in old crop corn supplies is supportive while new crop typically comes under pressure as the crop goes in the ground, which is what we are seeing currently. Producers should look at option strategies to protect the downside on new crop bushels.

Beans continue to see a very headline driven trade with news that the U.S./China trade war may be cooling driving a flood of buying early in last night’s session. The algo trade focus must have switched back to record old crop bean supplies by this morning as the rally has fizzled with resistance at the top of the recent range holding. The outlook is unchanged that record global supplies are expected to be bearish for old crop prices while lower U.S. bean area should provide some support for new crop prices. Make sure old crop sales are caught up and use puts to protect the downside risk while better selling opportunities are expected for new beans.

Corn down3-4

Beans up 1 old crop, down 1 new crop