Posted on:
April 3, 2025

Markets are trading sharply lower across the board this morning with widespread tariffs that were announced on Wednesday viewed as bad for growth in the U.S. and globally.

Trump announced on Wednesday afternoon sweeping reciprocal tariffs on trading partners around the world. There was chaos in equity futures market as the announcement was made with S&P futures trading higher initially before dropping 3% during the press conference.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 8k corn to reduce the net long to 70k, net sellers of 4k beans to push the net short out to 23k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 91k.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production was up by 10k bbls per day to 1,063k bbls. Stocks were off by 738k bbls to 26,612k bbls. Weekly production was above the necessary level to remain on track to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast.

Analyst ASAP Agri said the U.S. tariffs would open a big window for Ukraine corn exports as traditional U.S. corn buyers in Asia and Europe look elsewhere.

Ukraine weather analysts reported largely favorable March weather with winter and spring grains in good condition at this early point in the growing season.

Energy markets tumbled on the tariff news as well with crude oil down by over $4.

India said they were studying the impact of the 27% tariff that the U.S. applied to them and that they still hope a trade deal can be made with the U.S. this year.

Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday, finishing with losses, but then prices gapped lower overnight following tariff announcements with prices back at the bottom of the recent range. Overbought/sold indicators are neutral with support at 4.42 and resistance 4.70.

Beans traded an inside day on Wednesday. The market gapped open lower overnight and is back in the lower end of the recent trading range. The market is just starting to correct from overbought with room to pull back further as that continues. Support is 10.00 and resistance 10.20-10.30.

Corn dropped back to the lower end of its recent range overnight in response to the sweeping tariffs that were announced yesterday afternoon. Looking beyond the noise, we will still have tight supplies of old crop corn, but the new crop outlook is not as optimistic. Producers should continue to look at floors to protect new crop prices as expectations for a big area along with export demand uncertainty will limit upside potential there.

Beans surged early in the week on biofuel policy optimism, but the market gave all of those gains back overnight following the tariff announcement, which applied new additional tariffs on China. Beans were the biggest loser in the 2018 trade war, South American supplies are flowing into the market, and global bean supplies are already record large. Use puts to protect the downside risk in old crop beans for now.

 

Corn down 6-9

Beans down 20-25