Markets are trading mixed this morning with corn and beans seeing follow-through selling after a poor finish on Tuesday while wheat has been able to stabilize for the time being.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 15kcorn to drop the net long to 92k, net sellers of 5k beans to drop the net long to 38k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 102k.
On first notice day, there were 3 deliveries of May soybeans, 88 wheat, and 25 corn, which helps to explain some of the weakness in corn spreads that we saw on Tuesday.
China said they would plant 4-5 times more genetically modified corn than a year ago, but that will still only cover 7% of their planting area. Their roll out of more GM crops to become more self-sufficient has had mixed results with some varieties producing lower yields.
China used cooking oil shipments to the U.S. are expected to plunge in the coming months as tariffs set in. A lot of what normally would have come to the U.S. is likely to head to Europe now.
Argentina reported that their producer soybean sales were running at the slowest levels for this time of year in 11 years as slow harvest and an uncertain currency outlook has slowed the sales pace. This is despite measures taken by their president that they hoped would speed sales.
Corn posted lower lows, lower highs, and a lower close on Tuesday with prices dropping back to the middle of the recent range for July while Dec. corn dropped near recent lows. The market is oversold after recent losses with support for July near 4.70 holding thus far. Resistance is above the market at 4.97.
Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Tuesday with the market seeing follow-through to the downside overnight. The market has room to trade lower before it will be oversold with support at 10.40 and resistance 10.60.
Corn was under heavy pressure on Tuesday as speculative longs sold ahead of the May delivery period and the U.S. weather outlook was generally viewed as favorable. The outlook is unchanged with buyers expected to step in to support old crop corn on weakness, but as long as planting is going smoothly, new crop is going to struggle to find a reason to rally with lower prices likely. Producers should continue to use short-dated new crop option strategies to protect the downside risk on new crop corn.
Beans traded lower on Tuesday, but were able to limit losses into the close with prices finishing off their lows. The global supply outlook for beans continues to be bearish with global supplies forecast at a record, but new crop area in the U.S. is expected to be low with better new crop selling opportunities expected over time. Buy puts to protect unsold old crop beans.
Corn mixed to lower
Beans down 6-9