Markets are trading lower this morning, with wheat seeing the biggest losses after being the strongest of the three last week. Corn and beans continue to leak to new lows with the market expecting bearish supply data from the USDA on the report this morning.
The USDA will be out at 11:00 a.m. with their August supply and demand estimates. The average guess for national corn yield is 182.1 bpa and bean yield 52.5 bpa.
Friday’s CFTC report showed larger than expected buying from the funds in corn. For the week ending 8/6, they were net buyers of 53k corn to reduce the net short to 243k, net buyers of 10k beans to reduce the net short to 169k, and net buyers of 6k wheat to reduce the net short to 71k.
Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn with the net short estimated at 256k, net sellers of 4k beans to push the net short out to 185k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 73k.
Oilseed workers in Argentina are extending their strike another day after wage negotiations stalled. Three dozen ships were reported as delayed due to the strike.
Ukraine grain exports in July were estimated as double a year ago, taking advantage of military gains made in the Black Sea even as Russian attacks on their ports have picked up. Sovecon lowered their Russian wheat production forecast from 84.7mmt to 82.9mmt on lower yields and a smaller planted area.
The French Farm Ministry reiterated concerns that their wheat crop would be the smallest since the 1986, as excessively wet weather has hurt the crop since it was planted last fall.
Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Friday and is continuing the downtrend this morning. The market is oversold as it seeks out the next support level near 3.90 Dec. Resistance is above the market at 4.00.
Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and lower closes on Friday, with the market continuing the downtrend overnight. The market is oversold after recent losses with next support for Nov. at 9.80 and resistance at 10.30.
Corn is likely to be trading near lows when the USDA numbers are released this morning. The downtrend is in place and weather is non-threatening. Look for rallies to be sold as the market tries to flush out any remaining old crop corn that needs to be sold ahead of Sep.’s first notice day.
Beans are also likely to be trading at lows when the USDA numbers come out today. The downtrend is firmly in place with U.S. weather benign and the global supply outlook bearish. The downside risk isn’t viewed as that great, but there is no sign that we’re making lows yet.
Corn down 1-2
Beans down 6-8