Markets traded mixed overnight, with wheat seeing the best gains, which follows a firming in wheat calendar spreads yesterday. Corn tried to follow the wheat, but ran into selling near the 20 DMA while beans have seen some follow-through after posting a bullish reversal from lows yesterday.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 339.9 tmt (200-500 expected), corn at 120.5 tmt (300-550), n/c corn at 800.5 tmt (150-800), beans at 221.7 tmt (100-500), n/c beans at 1,344.2 tmt (400-1,000), meal at 113.7 tmt (50-250), n/c meal at 140.1 tmt (100-400), oil at 0.7 (0-15), and n/c oil at 0 (-3-10).

New crop corn and bean sales at or above the upper end of the range of expectations are encouraging. Old crop corn sales were bad with everything else near expectations.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 4k corn to reduce the net short to 247k, net buyers of 3k beans to reduce the net short to 202k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 76k.

NOPA crush will be out at 11 today with crush for July expected to be 182.367 mbu.

Russia attacked Ukraine grain facilities in the export port of Odesa Wednesday night, which contributed to the wheat strength. Egypt is still having informal talks with wheat exporters after their purchases earlier in the week fell well-short of the total tender amount after sellers wouldn’t agree to Egypt’s finance terms.

John Deere Q3 profit beat expectations as “stronger pricing and cost control measures protected its margins from sluggish demand for farm equipment”.

The Rosario Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest at 49mmt, which is down from 50mmt in the 2023/24 marketing year.

Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday and finished near the upper end of the day’s range, then posted new highs for the week overnight. The market is range-bound with directional indicators neutral. Support for Dec. is 3.97 and resistance is now 4.15-4.20.

Beans posted a bullish reversal from lows yesterday with prices climbing further in the down-channel this morning. The downtrend is in place, but there is more room to bounce as the market corrects from oversold. Support for Nov. is 9.50-9.60 and resistance is 9.80.

Corn moved to the upper end of the week’s range overnight, but pulled back from there with the market unimpressed thus far with the latest attacks on Ukraine grain infrastructure. With harvest approaching and a big crop expected, look for a sideways trade from here with funds expected to cover on pull-backs and producer selling expected to limit upside.

Beans are seeing modest follow-through to the upside this morning after posted a bullish reversal from lows yesterday. The trend is still lower with the fundamental outlook bearish. There is potential to bounce further, but sellers likely step back in if the market gets back to 9.80 basis Nov.

Corn down 1

Beans up 1-3

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