Markets traded mixed overnight, with corn and beans able to bounce modestly as the Pro Farmer crop tour kicks off today. Wheat is under pressure after bouncing modestly to finish last week. Pro Farmer will move through Ohio in the east today and Nebraska in the west. Their final production estimate will be out after the close on Friday.

Friday’s CFTC report showed that for the week ending 8/13, funds were net sellers of 6k corn to push the net short out to 249k (251 expected), net sellers of 5k beans to push the net short to 174k (205 expected), and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 73k (78 expected). Corn positions were as expected while the bean selling was much smaller than expected.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 6k corn to push the net short out to 256k, net sellers of 8k beans with the short estimated at 179k, and net even in the wheat with the short estimated at 73k.

Ukraine estimated their soybean crop at 5.7mmt, which is a record, but also not a major piece of global supply and demand. Ukraine’s wheat harvest is complete, with production estimated at 21.7mmt (USDA 21.6). France’s wheat harvest is complete with production the smallest since the 80’s.

The EU placed anti-dumping duties on China biodiesel, which could push Chinese fuel into other parts of the world.

Corn posted lower lows, lower highs, and a new low close on Friday, with the market testing the bottom of the recent consolidation range. Directional indicators are neutral with the repeated tests of the bottom of the range bearish. Support is 3.92 and resistance is 4.15-4.20.

Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and new low closes on Friday as the downtrend continues. The market is oversold after losses. Support is 9.50 and resistance is 9.80.

Corn is starting the week at the bottom of its recent range as the narrative is unchanged. U.S. production is expected to have record supplies of old crop corn continuing to weigh on prices as harvest approaches. The downside risk isn’t expected to be large, but it will take some time for the market to find a seasonal low. Look for a sideways trade as harvest approaches and big crops have been partially priced in.

Beans are bouncing to start the week but remain in a downtrend with the U.S. and global supply outlooks bearish. Beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward with the market trying to disincentivize production expansion in South America.

Corn up 2-4

Beans up 4-6