Markets traded mixed overnight with beans recovering all of yesterday’s losses on improving export prospects while corn and wheat are chopping within their recent trading ranges.
September first notice day is tomorrow, with September positions needing to be sold or rolled to deferred months by the close today.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to push the net short out to 267k, net sellers of 6k beans to push the net short out to 186k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 62k.
Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 532.1 tmt (300-650 expected), corn 15.3 tmt (-100-200), n/c corn 1,494.1 tmt (700-1,400), beans -143.6 tmt (-150-150), n/c beans 2,615.8 tmt (1,500-2,500), meal 21.2 tmt (-100-100), n/c meal 428.9 tmt (100-500), oil 1.1 (0-10), and n/c oil 0 (0-20).
Big new crop corn and bean exports with both exceeding the upper end of lofty expectations. Wheat was solid, coming in at the top of expectations. Mexico and unknown (China) were the best buyers of corn. China and unknown (also China) were the best buyers of new crop beans.
Weekly eia data showed ethanol production off by 27k bpd to 1,071k bbls. Stocks were off by 2k bbls to 23,572k bbls. Production continues to run greater than necessary to hit the USDA’s usage forecast.
Stats Canada estimated their wheat production at 34.4mmt (USDA 35).
French soft wheat exports outside of the EU are expected to drop by 60% from a year ago to their lowest level in 23 years after excess rains damaged this year’s crop. Quality results have shown low test weight and protein levels too.
India said they were considering increasing import taxes on vegetable oils to increase oilseed prices to help their domestic oilseed producers.
The Indian monsoon is forecasted to prolong into late September, which will delay harvest and cause problems for their rice, cotton, soybean, and corn crops.
Ukraine reported grain exports for the 2024/25 marketing year had hit 6.75mmt vs. 4.16mmt for the same period a year ago.
Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday, with the market giving back a small portion of Tuesday’s gains. The downtrend is still in place, but the market is just starting to correct from oversold with room to trade higher if it corrects more. Support is 3.85-3.90 and resistance is 4.00-4.10.
Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Wednesday with the recent move from lows hitting resistance at the 20 DMA and pulling back. The market is back at that resistance level this morning with the market a bit overbought after the recent move. Support is 9.50 and resistance is 9.80-9.90.
Corn pulled back yesterday as we see a sideways, range-bound trade ahead of harvest. The U.S. corn outlook is not bearish from current price levels with U.S. stocks far from burdensome, but the market knows there is a lot of grain that has to be priced this week. A bigger bounce from lows seems possible after first notice day, but impending harvest pressure means December corn is expected to run into strong resistance in the 4.10-4.20 area.
Beans pulled back after hitting 20 DMA resistance yesterday, but it is testing that level again this morning. The fundamental supply outlook is bearish, but China has engaged as a buyer at these levels and if the market can hold above the 20 DMA, we may see funds cover shorts.
Corn up 1-2
Beans up 10-12