Markets are trading higher across the board this morning as the weight of first-notice day selling has been lifted from the markets. Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 6k corn to reduce the net short to 261k, net buyers of 9k beans to reduce the net short to 177k, and net buyers of 3k wheat to reduce the net short to 59k.

The EU Commission lowered the usable production of common wheat estimate for the EU by 4.7mmt to 116.1mmt.

A survey of traders and analysts in Australia and Singapore estimated the Australian wheat crop for the coming year at 31mmt (USDA 30) with recent rains boosting production ideas.

Ukraine reported grain harvest so far this year at 28.7mmt with production ideas working higher after early harvest results.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentine corn area would drop 17.1% from a year ago due to fears of the leafhopper pest that hurt crops last year and possible La Nina related droughts.

Brazil based analyst Deral estimates the 2024/25 bean crop in the southern Brazil state of Parana will be up 20% from last year’s flood-impacted crop. The planted area is expected to be stable.

French corn was rated 79% g/e, which was up from 76% a week ago.

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Thursday with the market making a run at resistance at the 20 DMA. The market will end the downtrend if it can hold these gains through the close. Support is 3.85-3.90 and resistance is 4.00-4.10.

Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Thursday with the market able to close above the 20 DMA for the first time since July 25th. The market is overbought after recent gains and is on the verge of ending the downtrend. Support is 9.80 and resistance 10.20-10.30.

Corn is hitting new highs for the week this morning as first-notice day-related selling is behind us and the market is refocusing on a US balance sheet that is far from burdensome with US ending stocks likely to drop below 2bbu. With managed funds still sitting on a historically large net short and prices well below the cost of production, look for pull-backs to be well-supported. Alternatively, with harvest quickly approaching, selling interest is expected to emerge in the 4.10-4.20 area.

Beans are seeing double-digit gains overnight with first-notice day-related selling behind us and the US has seen a nice run of export demand as harvest approaches. The bigger picture outlook is still bearish, but the funds are short with the market trading above levels that are expected to trigger more short covering. Beans look to have an upside to the 10.30 area in the near term.

Corn up 3-5

Beans up 12-15

‍