Markets are trading mixed this morning in a pretty quiet trade as the initial response to yesterday’s announced tariffs on steel and aluminum haven’t had a major impact on grain markets.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net buyers of 8k corn to push the net long out to 362k, net buyers of 1k beans to push the net long to 42k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short out to 87k.

Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports last evening, keeping the risks of a wider spread trade war elevated.

France’s Farm Ministry raised their soft wheat area estimate for this year’s harvest. A dry finish to the fall allowed bigger planted area, but heavy rains over the winter have fields wetter than ideal for this time of year.

Kazakhztan said they had resolved grain and transportation issues with Russia, allowing grain exports to Europe and North Africa through Russia’s Baltic ports.

China maintained their 2024/25 corn and soybean estimates today with corn output estimated at 294.92 mmt (USDA 294.92) and bean output 20.65 mmt (USDA 20.65).

Estimates for today’s report. Actual numbers will be out at 11.

Corn posted a lower low and lower lower high to start the week, but was able to finish with gains with prices trading near the middle of its recent range this morning. The market is balanced with potential for a sizable move from here. Support for March is 4.87 and 4.80 with resistance 4.97.

Beans posted a lower low and lower high, but prices recovered from intraday lows to finish unchanged. The market is testing a trendline resistance level this morning that comes in at 10.52 today. Support is below the market at 10.30.

Corn is heading into the February USDA numbers this morning near the middle of the range that we’ve seen the last few weeks. U.S. corn demand remains robust, but there is a large managed fund long in the market that is at risk of liquidating if we get bearish headlines. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and look at puts to protect unsold bushels.

Beans are also going to be trading within their recent range going into the report today. The weather is bearish with rains hitting Argentina while Brazil is seeing cooperative harvest weather. With global supplies expected to be forecast record large, beans likely have the greatest downside risk from here. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts on remaining bushels.

Corn mixed

Beans down 1