Markets are trading mixed overnight with corn/beans seeing small losses while the wheat market is bouncing after sustaining losses yesterday.

Sales within the range of expectations across the board with corn and wheat sales impressive while beans are following normal seasonal trends of slowing as South American supplies become available.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 2k corn to push the net long out to 363k, net buyers of 8k beans to push the net long out to 32k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 78k.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up 2k bbls per day to 1,084k. Stocks were up by 526k bbls to 26,218k bbls. Weekly production of 319m gallons was above the 305 necessary to hit the USDA’s usage forecast.

The IGC lowered its 2024/25 global corn production forecast by 3 mmt to 1.216 bmt (USDA 1.212.5). The drop was primarily driven by a smaller Brazilian corn crop, which they estimated at 123.3 mmt (USDA 126).

IGC lowered their forecast for global bean production to 418 mmt (USDA 420.76) on smaller Argentine and Paraguay crops.

Russia reported seaborne grain exports in January were down 28.2% from January 2024. Russian wheat exports are expected to slow further in the coming months following their short crop last year. Exports for the total marketing year are expected to be down ~20% from a year ago.

CoBank estimated U.S. corn area in 2025 will be 94.55m, which would be up from 90.6m last year, but down from 94.6m 2 years ago.

Corn traded an inside day on Thursday, but prices finished at the very bottom of the day’s range. The market is starting to correct from overbought with room to pull-back as that happens. Support is 4.87 and resistance 5.05.

Beans traded an inside day on Thursday with prices finishing at the top of the day’s range.  The market is approaching overbought with prices remaining within their recent range. Support for March is 10.30 and resistance 10.50.

Corn was weak into the close yesterday, showing some signs that long corn/short bean spreaders were taking profits. The corn market continues to see very good demand, but the market is also overdue for a larger correction as South American harvest pressure weighs and longs against the March contract need to either sell or roll to deferred months ahead of first notice next week. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and add puts to protect additional unsold bushels.

Beans were firm into the close yesterday with spreading vs. corn and wheat providing support. The market still has the weakest fundamental outlook as Brazil’s record crop starts to flow into the global market. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect additional bushels.

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Corn mixed

Beans down 1