Markets are trading mixed this morning, holding within yesterday’s trading range.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 4k corn to reduce the net long to 313k, net buyers of 1k beans to push the net long to 10k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 76k.
USDA will be releasing U.S. acre estimates on Thursday morning at their annual outlook forum. Corn and bean acre projections are a focus with most expecting a sizable jump in corn area year over year. This report will not carry as much weight as the planting intentions report at the end of March. Average guess for corn area tomorrow is 93.6m and bean area 84.4m.
Mexico officially banned the planting of GM corn, which is a move that could lead to more tension with the U.S. in the future after the recent trade dispute regarding GM corn imports was resolved.
The EU reported soft wheat exports since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year were down 36% from a year ago as their short crop last summer is limiting export availability.
The governor of northern Brazilian state, Para, said he would revoke a bill that was expected to increase taxes on grain production.
The state a KS requested that the EPA delay by one year plans to allow E15 to be sold year-round. The date when year-round E15 is expected to go in place for midwestern states is April 28.
Corn posted another lower low, lower high, and lower close on Tuesday with prices approaching the lows from Feb. 3rd before bouncing. The market is oversold after recent losses with May support at 4.90 and resistance 5.00.
Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Tuesday, but prices reversed from lows early in the session to post a bullish reversal and finish with small gains. The market is still somewhat balanced with May support at 10.30 and 10.40 with resistance 10.60.
Corn is catching a small bid this morning as the market was due for a bounce after three consecutive days of losses. Demand remains strong and global supplies are relatively tight, but managed funds are still holding a historically large long position, South American harvest pressure is picking up, and U.S. cash movement has been large over the last month. With the market showing signs of rolling over as the uptrend has ended, make sure sales are caught up.
Beans made a large recovery from intraday lows yesterday with prices finishing the day higher and well-above the intraday lows. Beans still have the weakest outlook on building global supplies with the bean market expected to be the weakest leg moving forward. Make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect unsold bushels.
Corn up 1-2
Beans down 1-2