Markets are trading mixed this morning with beans catching a bid on reports that China had cancelled govt. soybean auctions while wheat is seeing follow-through selling. Corn is sitting near unchanged with the market unsurprised (so far) by any of the numbers in outlook forum balance sheets.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 1k corn to reduce the net long to 312k, net sellers of 5k beans to reduce the net long to 5k, and net sellers of 4k wheat to push the net short out to 80k.
The outlook forum estimated corn acres at 94m, which is up from 90.6m last year. Bean acres were estimated at 84m, which is down from 87.05m last year.
Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.965 bbu (1.540 LY). Bean ending stocks are estimated at 320 mbu (380 LY).
USDA estimated corn yield at 181 bpa and bean yield at 52.5 bpa.
Overall disappointing export sales report with beans the only one coming in within the range of expectations and that range was low.
Ukraine said they may cut their soybean area by 10-15% this year in favor for corn.
An Argentine oilseed union has threatened to strike in soybean processing plants over a salary dispute. A timeline has not been reported at this time.
The USDA said they would invest $1b to combat the spread of bird flu as well as increase egg imports in an effort to drive down high prices.
China reportedly canceled an auction of govt. soybean reserves. Crushers there have seen very good margins, which will likely spark soybean import demand, opening the door to better late season U.S. soy exports.
Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Wednesday, but finished lower for the 4th consecutive session. The market is oversold after recent losses, so may see some consolidation in this area. May support is 4.90 and resistance 5.00.
Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and new recent low close on Wednesday with the market finding moving average support near 10.40. The market is balanced with potential for a large move in either direction from this area. May support is 10.40 and resistance 10.60.
Corn continues to see a modest correction from recent highs as managed funds have been paring their historically large net long and cash markets are well-supplied. The outlook forum balance sheets today show comfortable ending stocks in 2025/26 with an argument to be made that their national yield will be hard to achieve, but also an argument could be made that they are too low on corn acres considering the new crop bean/corn relationship. With headline risk elevated and managed funds still very long, producers should make sure sales are caught up.
Beans closed near recent lows yesterday, but are seeing a nice recovery today with Chinese importers believed to be active buyers. The outlook forum balance sheets showed comfortable ending stocks in the U.S. for 2025/26, but there is risk that their acre forecast will drop and a 52.5 bpa national yield will require cooperative weather. While the U.S. balance sheets aren’t overly bearish, they’re also not expected to spark any major buying when South American harvest is ramping up. With beans repeatedly testing the lower end of their recent range, producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect additional bushels.
Corn mixed to lower
Beans up 5-7