Markets are recovering a portion of yesterday’s losses, which were primarily sparked by the rains that hit Argentina over the last couple of days.  

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to reduce the net long to 365k, net sellers of 10k beans to reduce the net long to 92k, and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 96k.

Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 438.9 tmt (200-550 expected), n/c wheat 47.3 tmt (0-50), corn 1,477.2 tmt (850-1,500), n/c corn 50 tmt (0-100), beans 387.7 tmt (300-1,100), n/c beans 0 (0-50), meal 530.6 tmt (200-500), n/c meal 2 (0), oil 2.2 (-15-30), and n/c oil 0 (0).

Another strong week for corn sales, solid wheat sales, and disappointing bean sales.

The weekly EIA report showed a rebound in ethanol production by 97k bbls per day to 1,112k bbls. Stocks were up by 690k bbls to 26,412k. Total weekly production of 327m gallons was above the roughly 306m production needed to stay on track to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast.

The Rosario Exchange in Argentina said, “rain on Tuesday and Wednesday brought much-needed relief to crops in Argentina’s central farming region, especially soybeans.”

Rabobank updated their Brazil soybean production forecast to 170 mmt (USDA 169), which was up 3 mmt from their prior estimate.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that U.S. bulk commodity exports in 2024 were up 22% from 2023 with exports to Mexico and Colombia both hitting new records.

Ukraine reported corn exports in January of 2.5 mmt with exports in February expected to be 2.15 mmt. They estimate corn exports at 22 mmt for the 2024/25 marketing year, which is just below the USDA’s forecast of 23 mmt.

Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Wednesday, but prices did finish the day lower after hitting a new high. The market is overbought with consolidation in the current price are possible. Support is 4.88 and resistance 4.95-5.00.

Beans posted a higher high and higher low on Wednesday, but prices reversed after hitting resistance near 10.80 to finish with large losses. The market is starting to correct from overbought with room to trade lower as that happens. Support is 10.50 and resistance 10.80.

Corn pulled back from highs on Wednesday as rains moved across Argentina to ease some of the weather concerns there. Demand remains strong, but the reversal from highs yesterday is bearish with managed funds still sitting on an historically large net long position. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and look at puts to protect unsold bushels.

Beans saw large losses on Wednesday with the market under pressure due to the rains in Argentina. Brazil production estimates continue to grow with the bearish global supply outlook still in place. With beans expected to be the weakest leg moving forward, producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to protect unsold bushels.

Corn mixed

Beans up 3-6