Markets are mixed overnight with corn and beans ticking higher within their recent ranges while wheat trades lower while remaining within its recent range as market consolidates ahead of today’s numbers from the USDA.
Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 111.3 tmt (150-500 expected), n/c wheat 0 (0-50), corn 445 tmt (700-1,400), n/c corn 0 (0-100), beans 288.7 tmt (400-1,300), n/c beans .4 (0-100), meal 144.9 tmt (150-400), and oil 34.6 (20-60).
Across the board poor sales as apparently things slowed down around the holidays.
Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 3k corn to push the net long out to 229k, net buyers of 2k beans to reduce the net short to 47k, and sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 96k.
The operator of France’s largest grain export terminal said their export volumes this year would drop by more than half following last year’s short French wheat crop.
The Biden Admin. is expected to release short-term guidance on clean fuel tax credits today, but final decisions will be made by the Trump Admin. Clean fuel tax credits initially were introduced during the Inflation Reduction Act, which Trump has said he plans to end. The future of the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation industries will be impacted.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said rains are needed to sustain crop potential in Argentina. The exchange’s weather analyst expects rain within the next week. They also said wheat harvest was 98.2% with total production estimated at 18.6 mmt (USDA 17.5).
A freight lobby in Brazil said they were at risk of “logistical collapse” after Brazil’s transport agency changed payment system rules for trucks that are currently moving their harvest.
China raised their corn production estimate from 293.84 mmt to 294.92 mmt (USDA 292). They lowered their corn import forecast from 13mmt to 9 mmt (USDA 14).
Corn traded an inside day on Thursday with prices finishing with small gains. It was able to recover above an old trendline, which is now support. The market is balanced ahead of the report today with potential for a large move in either direction. Support for March is 4.55 and 4.40. Resistance is 4.60.
Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Thursday, but prices reversed early lows to finish near the highs of the day’s range with some follow-through buying overnight. The market is balanced ahead of the report today with potential for a large move in either direction. Support for March is 9.80 and resistance 10.10.
Corn has spent the last week consolidating with prices trading mostly sideways ahead of today’s numbers from the USDA. The bias is that U.S. production could come down, but not to the point of making U.S. balance sheets overly tight. Managed funds are sitting on their largest net long position since 2022 with producers expected to be sellers if the market makes new highs. There are still questions about the size of the 2nd crop in Brazil as well as Argentina’s crop, but I think it can be argued that the market has bid in risk premium as March futures are nearly 60 cents above the late August low. Producers can look at zero-cost option structures to protect downside risk on unsold bushels.
Beans have also spent the last week consolidating with prices sitting near the middle of the range that we’ve traded since November. The bias is that U.S. production could drop again on today’s report to tighten US bean stocks, but Brazil is still expected to raise a record crop to keep global supplies elevated. Producers can look at puts to protect the downside risk on unsold beans.
Corn mixed
Beans mixed