Markets are trading mixed this morning with corn and beans recovering a portion of yesterday’s losses while wheat is under pressure. The forecast does look a little wetter for Argentina, which is something to keep an eye on, but beyond that news is very slow with little new in the way of fundamental news after last week’s crop report.
Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as sellers of 4k corn to reduce the net long to 290k, net sellers of 5k beans to reduce the net long to 17k, and net even in the wheat to leave the net short at 87k.
NOPA December crush will be out at 11 today with crush expected to come in at a new record for Dec. at 205.498 mbu. Oil stocks are forecast to be 1.253b lbs.
FranceAgriMer left their French wheat export forecast to non-EU countries unchanged at 3.5 mmt, which is the lowest in at least 24 years and down 66% from last year.
Ukraine grain imports thus far through the 2024/25 marketing year had wheat exports up 2.14 mmt while corn exports were down .14 mmt.
Grain buyers have noted a large uptick in farmer selling into the rally that was sparked by Friday’s USDA numbers.
Corn posted a higher high and higher low but reversed early gains to finish lower. The market is in an area where we had previously seen consolidation from 4.70 up to 4.85. The market is overbought after recent gains with support 4.70 then 4.60 with resistance 4.75-4.85.
Beans posted a higher high and higher low but reversed early gains to finish with losses. The market is overbought after recent gains. Resistance is 10.50-10.55 with support at 10.30.
Corn pulled back yesterday in a turn around Tuesday trade. The market has seen an extensive rally since posting lows in August as we priced in strong U.S. demand, Argentine weather problems, slow Brazil 2nd crop planting pace, and a much smaller U.S. corn crop reported by the USDA on Friday. The market is trading in an area that is expected to be resistance and there is still a lot of U.S. corn that will need to move off farm in the U.S. this winter. Producers should look at pushing old crop sales along and with expectations for larger U.S. corn acres this spring, look at making some new crop sales as well.
Beans pulled back from intraday highs yesterday to finish with losses. With the market over $1 above lows that were traded in mid-December, I think an argument can be made that we have priced in smaller U.S. production as well as some of the Argentine weather concerns. With that in mind, producers should look to push old crop sales further along. New crop prices remain well-below breakeven, so hold off on anything for new crop.
Corn up 1-3
Beans up 1-3