Markets are under pressure overnight with beans starting the move to the downside and then wheat and corn following along. The threat of retaliatory tariffs by Canada could hurt demand for renewable diesel, which would weigh on U.S. bean demand.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 6k corn to push the net long out to 296k, net sellers of 5k beans to reduce the net long to 12k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short out to 88k.
Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 513.4 tmt (150-400 expected), corn 1,024.2 tmt (500-1,000), beans 569.1 tmt (300-800), n/c beans 0 (0-100), meal 144.4 tmt (150-300), and oil 57.2 (10-50).
Solid corn and wheat sales above the upper end of expectations with bean sales within expectations.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production off by 7k bbls per day to 1,095k bbls. Stocks were up by 860k bbls to 25,008k bbls. Weekly production of 322m gallons was above the ~307m gallon weekly production we need to see to hit the USDA’s usage forecast.
NOPA crush for December hit a new record high at 206.604 mbu (205.498 expected) with oil stocks coming in at 1.236b lbs (1.253 expected). New plants came online in KS and ND, which helped drive the record usage.
Ukraine’s farm union said they would reduce soybean and canola area this year while increasing corn area.
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission announced a lawsuit against John Deere, alleging it illegally drives up repair costs by forcing farmer to rely on its authorized dealer network.
The Rosario Exchange lowered their corn production forecast to 48 mmt (USDA 51). They said their bean estimate was smaller than their previous forecast near 53.25 mmt (USDA 51), but they didn’t give a number. They cited hot and dry weather for the losses.
Strategie grains said winter crop conditions across most of Europe were satisfactory with 2025 grain production expected to rebound to near normal levels.
Canada said they had billions of dollars in retaliatory measures on U.S. exports ready if the Trump Admin. moves forward with their plan to impose tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S.
Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday with prices finishing at a new high closing price. The market bounced off resistance near 4.80 overnight and is pulling back this morning to the bottom of the range that we’ve traded the last two days. The uptrend is in place, but the market is overbought and due for a correction. Support is 4.60 and resistance 4.80.
Beans posted lower high, lower low, and lower close on Wednesday with prices seeing follow-through selling after posting a bearish reversal on Tuesday. The market is seeing more follow-through overnight and is on the verge of going lower on the week. The market is starting to correct from overbought but has room to trade lower before finding its next good support level after breaching 10.30 overnight. Support is 10.00 and resistance 10.30.
Corn is taking a breather this morning with prices dropping to the bottom of the range that we’ve seen for the last couple days as spillover selling from beans weighs as well as an uptick in farmer selling. The corn market is lacking of the next bullish catalyst to push prices higher right now, so a correction is likely. The longer-term outlook is not overly bearish after last week’s report, however, so look for the market to maintain some risk premium as we head into the U.S. growing season. Producers should make some sales after recent gains.
Beans posted a bearish reversal from highs on Tuesday and have come under pressure since then. The wetter forecast for Argentina is bearish and potential tariffs on U.S. renewable diesel exports to Canada could hurt demand for the biofuel industry. With the global supply outlook still very comfortable, the post-report rally was overdone with potential for the market to retrace more of those gains. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and buy puts to cover unsold bushels.
Corn down 3-5
Beans down 10-15